Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS/AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO FORECAST AREA DURING
MORNING HOURS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE SOUTH OF
CDS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO AREA. SOME
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL AS MODERATE CAPE AND 7
DEGREE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES SUPPORT MULTICELL MODE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRNEDS ARE REFLECTED WELL IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN A BIT TO PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALSO
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS EXTREME SE ZONES FROM MID 90S TO NEAR 90 GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.

FOR AVIATION FORECAST...WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CU LAYER AROUND 030 AND
SHIFT WINDS WITH FROPA AROUND 00Z IN DFW TRACON AND O2Z AT ACT.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WITH FROPA AND AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTS IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
AREA.

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

07/BB

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS INCLUDES THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT LONG-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM IN THE RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN
FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

07/BB