Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2002

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. AS THE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...
WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THUS WILL MENTION
PROB40 OF SHRA BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH PAST SUNSET. MOST OF THE THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF WACO...SO WILL JUST KEEP A MENTION OF CB
IN THE WACO TAF BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.  WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT TOMORROW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  WE COULD
SEE SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  #58

321 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2002 PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN SOME VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  STORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA.
MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR THE RED RIVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND THIS WILL PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGHER PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD SEE DRIER
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.

FCSTID = 79
DFW   71  92  71  93 /  30  30  20  20
ACT   72  94  71  93 /  50  40  30  30
PRX   70  92  70  92 /  30  40  30  30
DTO   71  92  70  91 /  30  30  20  20
TKI   71  92  70  91 /  30  30  20  20
DAL   71  92  71  93 /  30  30  20  20
TRL   70  92  70  92 /  30  40  30  30
CRS   72  94  72  94 /  40  40  30  30
TPL   72  94  71  93 /  50  40  30  30

.FWD...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
355 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EASTLAND...TO PALESTINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BRIEFLY WITH STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS... HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...THEY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH.  THE STORM SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL
AREA...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM.  THE STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.