Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA IN AREA OF
BEST CONVERGENCE AND SURFACE HEATING.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS IN THE
NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS AS WE NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPS.  THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD REACH THE
RED RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING.  CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE IN ALL ZONES TONIGHT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE STORMS AND THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY SLOW OR STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING AND BEGIN A SLOW RETREAT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES LESS DEFINED.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EAST.  UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL BRING DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH TEXAS.

FCSTID = 79
DFW   73  90  71  92 /  60  50  40  30
ACT   73  93  72  95 /  60  50  50  30
PRX   72  88  70  92 /  50  40  40  30
DTO   71  89  71  92 /  60  40  40  30
TKI   71  89  71  92 /  60  40  40  30
DAL   73  90  71  92 /  60  50  40  30
TRL   72  88  70  92 /  50  40  40  30
CRS   74  92  72  95 /  60  50  50  30
TPL   73  93  72  95 /  60  50  50  30

.FWD...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-122100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1209 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THUNDERSTORMS
LAST NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR AN
EASTLAND...WACO...TO CENTERVILLE LINE.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR A COLD FRONT IN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING AND AFFECT MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO
BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
AN EASTLAND...WACO...TO CENTERVILLE LINE.  ADDITIONAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-122100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1209 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THUNDERSTORMS
LAST NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR AN
EASTLAND...WACO...TO CENTERVILLE LINE.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR A COLD FRONT IN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING AND AFFECT MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO
BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF AN EASTLAND...WACO...TO CENTERVILLE LINE.  ADDITIONAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JACKSBORO...TO
CANTON LINE THROUGH LATE EVENING.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON GOING AT LATE AFTERNOON... AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE DURING THEY LIFE CYCLE DUE AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN THE RED RIVER AND THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTH OKLAHOMA
AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER BEFORE 6 PM. THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX BY 8
PM.  IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT... THEY MAY MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER 10 PM.

THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...CORRECTED FOR UGC CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JACKSBORO...TO
CANTON LINE THROUGH LATE EVENING.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON GOING AT LATE AFTERNOON... AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE DURING THEY LIFE CYCLE DUE AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS BETWEEN THE RED RIVER AND THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTH OKLAHOMA
AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER BEFORE 6 PM. THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX BY 8
PM.  IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT... THEY MAY MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER 10 PM.

THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.