Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

SEVERAL CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST...AS
SEVERE MCS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONTINUES A RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. STRONGEST SYSTEM RELATIVE
CONVERGENCE REMAINS ON SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX...WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE DISCRETE CELLS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING MORE TO
THE SOUTH THAN SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS FORCED A MORE LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THAT STATE. ANALYSIS OF 16/00Z RAOB FROM FWD
INDICATES THAT A VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...WITH RETURN FLOW EMANATING FROM SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OVERALL...FEEL THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOW AND PRIMARILY FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG THE
INITIAL GUST FRONT. DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
PROMOTE ENHANCED DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM...AND WILL WORK WITH
THE WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL TO POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND
EVENTS.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE APPEARS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF THE MCS
CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...IT WILL LIKELY REACH THE RED RIVER
AROUND 11 PM...THE DFW METROPLEX AROUND 1 AM...AND WACO AROUND 3 AM.
THE LATEST REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KTLX INDICATES AN EXPANDING AREA
OF STRATIFORM PRECIP BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE. GENERALLY FEEL THAT
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF COUNTIES
...MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF SYSTEM MOTION SLOWS CONSIDERABLY...THEN
THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED.

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

65/DD

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HIGH WINDS...AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGH WINDS ALONG...AND JUST BEHIND...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE STORMS.  WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL BE
COMMON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO AND
THREE INCHES PER HOUR. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE TRAVELING AROUND
35 TO 40 MPH...REDUCING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER A LARGE
AREA. INSTEAD...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM MAINLY IN
URBAN AREAS...WHERE RUNOFF WILL BE HIGH.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE STORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.