Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 190107
FFSFTW
TXC113-367-439-190110-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
754 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR TARRANT AND DALLAS COUNTIES WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PARKER COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED AS 
OF 800 PM CDT...

THOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PARKER...TARRANT AND 
DALLAS COUNTIES...THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT RESULTED IN ROAD CLOSURES 
AND FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...HAS NOW PUSHED NORTH AND 
NORTHEAST FROM DENTON AND MCKINNEY...TO BETWEEN SHERMAN...BONHAM... 
PARIS AND INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A VIGOROUS UPPER 
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA. 
HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE 
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY WITHIN THE NEXT 15 TO 30 MINUTES OVER THE WARNED 
AREA.  

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT SINCE IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE 
FLOODED STREETS AND HIGHWAYS...AS WELL AS SWOLLEN STREAMS...CREEKS 
OR DRAINAGE DITCHES. TAKE THE SHORTEST PATH TO REACH HIGHER 
GROUND...BUT DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH RISING WATER OR BARRICADES. TAKE 
EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION THIS EVENING. 

LAT...LON 3298 9656 3257 9653 3259 9802 3299 9801

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2002

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 04Z-06Z
...NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH TX...GENERALLY ALONG A GRANBURY...TO HILSBORO...TO ATHENS LINE.
THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF OF MAIN UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO FAR W TX. SO
AT LEAST THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH THE OCCNL
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN OR
WHERE STRONGER...EMBEDDED STORMS OCCUR ACROSS THE D/FW PORTION OF
THE TRACON. VFR CONDITIONS AROUND KACT...UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING WHEN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IFR/LIFT
CIGS/VSBYS. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT NWD TWDS RED RIVER
VALLEY 06Z-12Z AS MID LVL COLD CORE APPROACHES. THE LATTER 12-15 HRS
OF THE TAF PDS FOR THE DFW TRACON WILL SEE MORE SCT SHRA/TSRA...BUT
LESS CONVECTION OVERALL WITH MORE STRATUS. GENERALLY IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...EXCEPT WITH CONVECTION WHERE CIGS WILL GO MVFR...BUT
VSBYS WON/T. 05/

.AFTERNOON PUBLIC DISCUSSION 205 PM CDT...
WHILE THE WEEKEND MAY BE STARTING ON A SOGGY NOTE...THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE...WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED AGAIN UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED...A TREND
THAT WE EXPECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW...NOW OVER SWRN
NM...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO
OPEN AND ACCELERATE SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT...AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA EARLY
SATURDAY...AND EXIT BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST.  THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH FROPA SATURDAY EVENING...BUT IT WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. OVERALL...THE PRINCIPAL RAIN EVENT SHOULD END BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...MIDDAY IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  A BIG CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN.
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR
INCHES. OUR THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE RAINS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE
EXCESSIVE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER A VERY LARGE AREA.  LOW
LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS...BUT OVERALL...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AFTER FROPA SATURDAY EVENING...SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND
PLEASANT...ALTHOUGH COOL...WITH WET GROUND LIMITING THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION...
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FOR WEDNESDAY AS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRYER AIR FILTERS IN. NEXT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CWA.

DFW   65  73  54  69 / 100  70  20   0
ACT   66  75  56  73 /  80  70  20   0
PRX   62  71  54  68 / 100  70  20   0
DTO   64  74  54  69 / 100  70  20   0
TKI   63  74  54  69 / 100  70  20   0
DAL   64  74  55  69 / 100  70  20   0
TRL   66  74  56  69 / 100  70  20   0
CRS   65  74  57  71 /  80  70  20   0
TPL   65  77  57  73 /  80  70  20   0

.FWD...NONE

42/34

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-192015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL ONE TO TWO
INCHES BY NOON SATURDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.  LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND CREEKS MAY
OCCUR... HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...PALESTINE LINE.  VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREAT. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SOUTH AND WEST OF A COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...PALESTINE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&& ROBBINS=34