Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 26, 2002, 5:18 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 26, 2002, 5:18 PM MST (00:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 26, 2002, 5:45 PM MST
- In force
- 27 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 558 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 39 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
062 WUUS55 KFGZ 270018 SVRFGZ AZC025-270045- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVIATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 513 PM MST SAT OCT 26 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BLACK CANYON CITY * UNTIL 545 PM MST * AT 509 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER ROCK SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF BLACK CANYON CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACK CANYON CITY AT 520 PM MST 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUMBLE BEE AT 535 PM MST HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3409 11236 3395 11222 3417 11186 3435 11203
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 26, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 26, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 48 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT OCT 26 2002
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM
EXITING THE STATE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW-CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO ARIZONA. THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE AS A STRONG JET MAX MOVES OUT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER
RESULTING IN A WIDE AREA OF UPWARD MOTION AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. A
PLUME OF PRECIPITATION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPWARD MOTION WILL RESULT
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST UPWARD MOTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POP VALUES
WILL BE INDICATED. IT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A SNOW LEVEL OF
6500-7500 FEET TONIGHT AND 6500 FEET DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOCAL
AREAS OF 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY JET
MAX WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW CENTER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM WOBBLES IN RESPONSE TO THE DYNAMICS INDUCED BY
THE SECOND JET MAX. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA LASTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN WITH STRONG SINKING MOTION PUTTING AN
END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND
REMAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEKEND IT APPEARS THAT
ANOTHER SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW AND INTO ARIZONA.
MCCOLLUM
FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SUN MON TUE TON SUN MON TUE
FLAGSTAFF 029/047 025/054 024/058 060 040 030 020 000 000
WINSLOW 037/056 032/061 032/062 040 030 020 020 000 000
PRESCOTT 036/057 035/063 034/067 050 040 020 020 000 000
PAGE 045/056 043/062 040/063 040 030 020 020 000 000
WINDOW ROCK 032/045 028/051 025/055 060 050 030 020 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 039/049 035/055 032/059 050 050 030 020 000 000
COTTONWOOD 043/067 042/073 041/077 050 040 020 020 000 000
GRAND CANYON 030/050 026/057 025/061 050 030 020 020 000 000
GREER 029/045 025/052 024/056 070 060 040 030 000 000
HEBER 031/053 027/060 026/064 070 050 040 030 000 000
JACOB LAKE 030/042 026/049 025/053 050 040 030 020 000 000
NAVAJO N.M. 039/041 035/047 032/051 050 040 030 020 000 000
PAYSON 037/060 036/066 035/070 060 050 030 020 000 000
SEDONA 044/063 043/069 042/073 050 040 020 020 000 000
SELIGMAN 029/059 028/065 027/069 040 030 020 020 000 000
SHOW LOW 037/055 033/062 032/066 060 050 030 020 000 000
ST. JOHNS 034/054 029/059 029/060 060 050 030 030 000 000
WUPATKI N.M. 042/057 037/062 037/063 040 040 030 020 000 000Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 26, 7:00 AM MST, 10 hours 18 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-270200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 700 AM MST SAT OCT 26 2002 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY THIS EVENING. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. .INSTRUCTIONS TO SPOTTERS... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. THE STORM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 5:18 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 27 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.