Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 8, 2002Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 8, 2002, 1:38 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 8, 2002, 1:38 PM MST (20:38 UTC)
Expired: Sep 8, 2002, 2:00 PM MST
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Coconino County, AZ

The radar

The Cedar City radar (KICX), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 708 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

968 
WUUS55 KFGZ 082038
SVRFGZ
AZC005-082100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
137 PM MST SUN SEP 8 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 200 PM MST

* AT 137 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER WAHWEEP...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  PAGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY 
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST 
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3710 11156 3692 11155 3692 11121 3710 11122

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 8, 10:00 AM MST, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 10:00 AM MST, 3 hours 38 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN SEP 08 2002

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...ALMOST AN EXACT REPEAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE...AND A DECENT SPEED SHEAR PROFILE.
TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN MOVING EAST AND SHEARING OUT TODAY...BUT
NOT BEFORE INJECTING SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE MID LEVELS. THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY FROM
FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD. MUCH OF THE AREA SITS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110 KNOT JET AHEAD OF THE EJECTING TROUGH...WHICH WILL
ALSO SERVE TO VENTILATE LARGE STORMS. WITH NO FLASH FLOODING
REPORTED YESTERDAY...THINK THE DROUGHT-STARVED SOILS CAN TAKE MORE
RAIN...SO NO FFA FOR NOW. ZONES LOOK GOOD WITH HIGH POPS AND HEAVY
RAIN WORDING...NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   MON     TUE        TDY TON   MON   TUE
FLAGSTAFF        065/050 064/048 066/046      080 050 060 040 050 040
WINSLOW          076/058 077/058 077/056      070 050 060 040 040 030
PRESCOTT         072/055 072/054 073/052      070 050 060 040 050 040
PAGE             072/058 075/060 078/058      070 050 050 040 040 030
WINDOW ROCK      073/050 075/050 074/048      070 050 060 040 050 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 079/057 081/057 080/055      070 050 060 040 050 040
COTTONWOOD       083/063 083/062 084/060      070 050 060 040 050 040
GRAND CANYON     066/051 065/049 067/047      080 050 060 040 050 040
GREER            062/049 061/047 063/045      070 050 060 050 050 040
HEBER            070/053 069/051 071/049      080 050 060 040 050 040
JACOB LAKE       062/050 061/048 063/046      080 050 060 040 050 040
NAVAJO N.M.      071/056 073/056 072/054      060 040 050 030 040 030
PAYSON           076/055 076/054 077/052      060 040 050 040 040 030
SEDONA           080/062 080/061 081/059      070 050 060 040 050 040
SELIGMAN         075/048 075/047 076/045      060 040 050 030 040 030
SHOW LOW         071/059 070/057 072/055      070 050 060 040 050 040
ST. JOHNS        072/054 073/054 073/052      060 050 060 040 040 030
WUPATKI N.M.     078/060 079/060 079/058      070 050 060 040 040 030

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 8, 9:50 AM MST, 3 hours 48 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-081930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN SEP 08 2002

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...

VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STORMS TODAY WILL AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE THE HAIL THREAT FOR
TODAY. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL SIZES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH.

A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH
OF RAIN ON SATURDAY...AND SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED
OVER A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE SATURATING AROUND THE
STATE...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
FLOODING.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...

RODEO-CHEDISKI BURN AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE FIRE SITE IS LOW TO MODERATE
TODAY.

INDIAN BURN AREA...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION IS MODERATE TODAY.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.