Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 9, 2002, 2:23 PM MST for Apache County, Arizona. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 2002, 2:23 PM MST (21:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2002, 3:00 PM MST
- In force
- 37 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Apache County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 176 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 231 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 59 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -263 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2166 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 127 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
770 WUUS55 KFGZ 092123 SVRFGZ AZC001-092200- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 223 PM MST TUE JUL 9 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 300 PM MST * AT 223 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZUNI PUEBLO...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3480 10914 3502 10922 3501 10957 3465 10947
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 9, 9:15 AM MST, 5 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 9:15 AM MST, 5 hours 8 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUL 09 2002
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP
INTO MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AS H5 HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN STRENGTHENS. WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING INCREASINGLY EASTERLY...TAPPING MOISTURE POOL TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS REFLECTED IN THE DPS AND PW. SFC
DPS THIS MORNING ARE UP 10-20 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AND 12Z FGZ
SOUNDING INDICATED AN INCREASE IN PW OF 0.74 INCHES UP 0.20 INCHES.
INVERTED TROF MOVING THRU SOUTHERN AZ CONTRIBUTING TO THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. LIS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY -1 TO -3 WITH BEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE WHITES AND EASTERN RIM. CWA TO BE AFFECTED BY
SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH. FIRST ONE PROGGED FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD AREA OF OF UP LEVEL DIVERGENCES
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE SE CWA. LOOKING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TODAY. EXPECT THE HEAVY QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN RIM AREAS.
OF MAJOR CONCERN IS THE RODEO BURN SITE. WILL CONSIDER ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FIRE SITE. CURRENT ZONE TRENDS IN GOOD
SHAPE...NO UPDATE. DF
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON WED THU TDY TON WED THU
FLAGSTAFF 085/053 083/058 082/055 050 040 050 050 040 040
WINSLOW 095/070 093/070 092/068 040 060 050 050 040 040
PRESCOTT 095/067 091/068 091/066 040 040 040 050 040 040
PAGE 102/079 100/077 097/076 030 030 040 040 040 040
WINDOW ROCK 086/055 083/054 082/053 050 060 050 050 040 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 095/070 092/069 091/068 040 040 050 040 040 030
COTTONWOOD 106/070 102/071 102/069 030 030 030 040 030 030
GRAND CANYON 087/052 085/057 084/054 030 030 040 040 040 030
GREER 081/049 079/054 078/051 050 060 050 050 050 050
HEBER 090/064 088/066 087/066 050 060 050 050 040 040
JACOB LAKE 083/053 081/058 080/055 030 030 040 040 040 040
NAVAJO N.M. 090/069 087/068 086/067 040 050 040 040 030 030
PAYSON 097/066 095/067 094/067 050 060 050 040 050 040
SEDONA 098/073 094/074 094/072 040 040 040 050 040 040
SELIGMAN 100/059 096/061 096/059 030 030 030 040 030 030
SHOW LOW 091/065 089/066 088/063 050 050 050 050 050 040
ST. JOHNS 089/065 087/065 086/063 050 060 050 040 050 040
WUPATKI N.M. 099/073 097/073 095/071 040 040 040 050 040 040In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 9, 9:45 AM MST, 4 hours 38 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-091930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 945 AM MST TUE JUL 09 2002 ...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY... THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP AS AN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAPS INTO A MOISTURE POOL OVER N.M. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK... SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT... CHEDISKI-RODEO FIRE SITE....MODERATE. INDIAN FIRE SITE...LOW DF
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.