Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 28, 2002, 11:21 AM MST for Apache County, Arizona. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 28, 2002, 11:21 AM MST (18:21 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 28, 2002, 11:45 AM MST
- In force
- 24 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Apache County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 202 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 256 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3633 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -104 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1518 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 68 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 7.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
305 WUUS55 KFGZ 281821 SVRFGZ AZC001-281845- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1120 AM MST WED AUG 28 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 1145 AM MST * AT 1120 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN APACHE COUNTY...OR ABOUT OVER ALPINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO... RURAL SOUTHEASTERN APACHE COUNTY AT 1130 AM MST HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3390 10923 3381 10909 3396 10906 3413 10908
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 28, 9:15 AM MST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 28, 9:15 AM MST, 2 hours 6 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST WED AUG 28 2002
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SOME MOISTURE FROM MEXICO WILL ALSO BE
DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WINDS. NRN AZ REMAINS
BETWEEN TROF OVER NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
OF THE STATE. NO FGZ SOUNDING BUT PHX SOUNDING INDICATES 30-40 KT OF
WIND ALOFT FOR GUSTY WINDS TODAY. REMAINING MIXED LAYER FROM
YESTERDAY WILL ALLOW US TO MIX RAPIDLY INTO THIS WIND FIELD FOR
EARLY START TO WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA AND LCR. THIS EVENT LOOKS AS THOUGH RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...BUT NOT LIKELY TO MEET PUBLIC WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TROF FILLS ON THURSDAY AND GRADIENTS RELAX FOR LIGHTER
WINDS.
OTHER STORY WILL BE THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED INTO
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO MCS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
DEW POINTS UP 10 DEGREES OR MORE IN THE EAST AND TUS SOUNDING HAS
MORE THAN DOUBLED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH AMPLE CONVECTIVE ENERGY
IN THE SOUNDING. SHOWERS HAVE STARTED ALREADY OVER THE WHITES SO
WILL BRING POPS UP OVER THIS REGION FOR TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND STEERING FLOW PUSHES THIS MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WHITES OVERNIGHT FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. STAUDENMAIER
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON THU FRI TDY TON THU FRI
FLAGSTAFF 080/042 077/043 076/045 020 020 010 010 000 000
WINSLOW 092/056 088/057 087/059 000 000 020 020 000 000
PRESCOTT 088/058 087/057 086/059 000 000 000 000 000 000
PAGE 093/066 090/065 088/067 000 000 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK 085/048 080/048 079/050 020 020 030 030 020 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 091/056 086/056 085/058 020 020 020 020 020 020
COTTONWOOD 099/066 098/065 097/067 000 000 000 000 000 000
GRAND CANYON 081/037 078/039 079/045 020 020 010 010 000 000
GREER 075/039 072/040 071/042 030 030 020 020 010 010
HEBER 085/044 082/045 081/047 030 030 020 020 010 010
JACOB LAKE 078/042 075/043 074/045 020 020 010 010 000 000
NAVAJO N.M. 085/053 080/053 079/055 020 020 020 020 020 020
PAYSON 092/059 091/058 090/060 000 000 000 000 000 000
SEDONA 096/064 095/063 094/065 000 000 000 000 000 000
SELIGMAN 091/051 090/050 089/052 000 000 000 000 000 000
SHOW LOW 085/050 082/051 081/053 020 020 020 020 010 010
ST. JOHNS 087/051 083/052 082/054 000 000 020 020 000 000
WUPATKI N.M. 094/057 090/058 089/060 000 000 020 020 000 000In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 9:30 AM MST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-281930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST WED AUG 28 2002 ...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA... DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN MORE THAN TEN DEGREES...AND MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THIS REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE WHITES AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK... RODEO-CHEDISKI BURN AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BURN AREA. SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH. INDIAN BURN AREA...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. STAUDENMAIER
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 11:34 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Apache | 26 min |
| Aug 28, 1:04 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Apache, Navajo | 36 min |
| Aug 28, 1:42 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Apache | 33 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.