Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 3, 2002, 12:25 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 20 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 3, 2002, 12:25 PM MST (19:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 3, 2002, 12:45 PM MST
- In force
- 20 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2317 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -61 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
972 WUUS55 KFGZ 031925 SVRFGZ AZC025-031945- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1220 PM MST WED JUL 3 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 1245 PM MST * AT 1221 PM MST...AMATEUR WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF JEROME TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JEROME...OR FROM 21 MILES NORTH OF PRESCOTT TO 16 MILES EAST OF PRESCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SPOTTERS ALSO REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF NEARLY 60 MILES PER HOUR AT THE PRESCOTT AIRPORT AND AT DEWEY AS THESE STORMS PASSED. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO...CLARKDALE AT 1230 PM MST REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3491 11247 3459 11218 3484 11194 3497 11238
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 3, 9:50 AM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 9:50 AM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST WED JUL 03 2002
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THURSDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS MOISTURE RETURNS BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE TODAY TIME PERIOD OF THE ZONE FORECAST ARE GOOD. ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY TODAY WITH PWS AROUND 98 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL
LEAD TO MORE MOIST AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY. 88D IS SHOWING THAT
STORMS TO THE WEST ARE SPLITTING...SO GOOD INDICATION THAT SHEAR IS
A LITTLE BETTER CLOSER TO THE LOW. THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING. THINKING...THAT THERE WILL BE
A ISOLATED THREAT OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO
WINSLOW TO PAYSON THIS AFTERNOON...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FACTOR. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ THURSDAY AND INTO
EASTERN SECTIONS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE LOW WILL BE FILLING AND WEAKENING IN TIME AS WELL. TSTMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ALONG THE UTAH BORDER EASTWARD
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE WHITES AND POTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...POSSIBLY TOO DRY IN YAVAPAI COUNTY BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR CONVECTION.
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON THU FRI TDY TON THU FRI
FLAGSTAFF 084/050 082/049 081/047 050 020 030 020 000 000
WINSLOW 097/064 093/061 090/059 040 020 020 010 000 000
PRESCOTT 092/059 091/060 087/058 050 020 020 010 000 000
PAGE 095/071 094/071 095/069 040 020 020 010 000 000
WINDOW ROCK 088/052 085/050 083/048 050 030 040 020 010 010
CANYON DE CHELLY 094/058 091/056 089/054 040 020 030 020 010 010
COTTONWOOD 103/067 102/068 098/066 040 020 020 010 000 000
GRAND CANYON 086/049 084/048 083/046 050 020 030 020 000 000
GREER 080/046 078/045 077/043 050 020 040 020 010 010
HEBER 089/051 087/050 086/048 050 020 030 020 010 010
JACOB LAKE 082/050 080/049 079/047 050 020 030 020 000 000
NAVAJO N.M. 088/056 085/054 083/052 040 020 030 020 010 010
PAYSON 097/060 096/061 092/059 050 020 020 010 000 000
SEDONA 101/065 100/066 096/064 040 020 020 010 000 000
SELIGMAN 095/052 094/053 090/051 040 010 010 010 000 000
SHOW LOW 090/058 088/057 087/055 050 020 030 020 000 000
ST. JOHNS 091/059 087/056 084/054 040 030 030 010 000 000
WUPATKI N.M. 099/067 095/064 092/062 040 020 020 010 000 000In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 3, 9:30 AM MST, 2 hours 55 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-031930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST WED JUL 03 2002 ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY... MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO WINSLOW TO PAYSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IS NONE TO LOW.
Local storm report, Jul 3, 12:19 PM MST, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA
1219 PM MST WED JUL 3 2002
TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1157 PM PRESCOTT AZ 61 MPH TSTM GUST
07/03/02 YAVAPAI
1205 PM DEWEY AZ 60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/03/02 YAVAPAILocal storm report, Jul 3, 12:19 PM MST, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA
1219 PM MST WED JUL 3 2002
TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1157 AM PRESCOTT AZ 61 MPH TSTM GUST
07/03/02 YAVAPAI
1205 PM DEWEY AZ 60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/03/02 YAVAPAINearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.