Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 5, 2002, 8:42 PM MDT for Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 5, 2002, 8:42 PM MDT (02:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 5, 2002, 10:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2732 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 54 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 060247 FFWFGZ AZC017-060545- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 742 PM MST MON AUG 5 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CARRIZZO CREEK AND THE TOWN OF CARRIZZO IN SOUTH CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 1045 PM MST * AT 735 PM MST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STREAM GAGE ON CARRIZZO CREEK LOCATED 12 MILES UPSTREAM FROM THE TOWN OF CARRIZZO READ 26.9 FEET. FLOOD STAGE AT THIS GAGE IS 27.2 FEET. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SALT RIVER AND WILL BE OVER CARRIZZO CREEK BY 815 PM MST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ALONG CARRIZZO CREEK THROUGH 10 PM MST... FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3414 11050 3411 11031 3428 11027 3432 11046
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 5, 3:30 PM MDT, 5 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 5, 3:30 PM MDT, 5 hours 12 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST MON AUG 05 2002
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EVEN THE
DRIER WESTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY AS
THE MOISTURE PUSHES WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WESTERLY FLOW
TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
CONSIDERABLY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER SATURDAY.
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO BETTER HEATING AND DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE
SOME NOCTURNAL QUALITIES TONIGHT AS FORCING FROM THE WAVE AND
VARIOUS OUTFLOWS WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE AIRMASS. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY...AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DEBRIS CLOUD IS AROUND...IT COULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY. EXPECT ONE
MORE DAY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KICK THE RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING THERE INTO ARIZONA...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL
ALSO BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST ALLOWING FOR WESTERLY...EVEN NORTH
WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL PUSH THE
MONSOON BOUNDARY SO FAR SOUTH...THAT NO MORE POPS WILL BE MENTIONED
AFTER SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES. PETERSON.
.FGZ...NONE
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON TUE WED THU TON TUE WED THU
FLAGSTAFF 058/075 056/077 054/079 040 040 030 040 030 030
WINSLOW 066/084 065/086 065/088 040 030 030 030 020 030
PRESCOTT 067/086 067/087 066/089 030 030 030 030 020 030
PAGE 071/090 069/091 068/093 020 020 020 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 054/078 053/079 052/081 040 040 040 040 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 062/084 061/085 060/087 040 030 030 030 020 030
COTTONWOOD 075/097 075/098 074/100 030 030 030 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON 058/076 056/078 054/080 020 030 020 030 020 030
GREER 055/070 053/072 051/074 040 040 040 040 030 030
HEBER 060/080 058/082 056/084 040 040 040 040 030 030
JACOB LAKE 058/073 056/075 054/077 020 020 020 020 020 020
NAVAJO N.M. 059/078 058/079 057/081 020 020 020 020 020 020
PAYSON 068/090 068/091 067/093 030 030 030 030 020 030
SEDONA 073/094 073/095 072/097 030 030 030 030 020 030
SELIGMAN 060/089 060/090 059/092 020 030 020 030 020 030
SHOW LOW 066/080 064/082 062/084 040 040 040 040 030 030
ST. JOHNS 061/079 060/081 060/083 040 030 030 030 020 030
WUPATKI N.M. 067/086 066/088 066/090 030 030 030 030 020 030The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 8:47 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 3 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.