Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 19, 2002, 2:51 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 19, 2002, 2:51 PM MST (21:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 19, 2002, 3:45 PM MST
- In force
- 54 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Coconino County, AZ
The radar
The Cedar City radar (KICX), 166 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1921 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -26 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 40 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 192152 FFWFGZ AZC005-192345- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 251 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS INCLUDES THE BRIGHT ANGEL CREEK AT GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK * UNTIL 445 PM MST * AT 244 PM MST...PARK RANGERS AT THE NORTH RIM REPORTED NEARLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN 210 PM AND 240 PM MST. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON BRIGHT ANGEL CREEK AT GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK. FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN BRIGHT ANGEL CREEK TOWARD PHANTOM RANCH CAMPGROUND. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3616 11214 3617 11196 3635 11198 3634 11212
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 19, 2:30 PM MST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 2:30 PM MST, 21 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI JUL 19 2002
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF OVER NORTHERN NV LIFTS NE AND FILLS WHILE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SW THRU THE PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROG A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
MORNINGS NKX SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUE DOWN 0.40 INCHES PAST 24 HRS.
DRYING EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL. SEE LITTLE CHANGE
IN SFC DPS. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THRU THE WEEKEND FOR LOW GRADE MONSOON WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SEEING THE MOST ACTIVITY. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS FLOW BECOMING
EASTERLY ON MONDAY. THIS PUSHES MOISTURE TO EAST BACK INTO AZ. EXPECT
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED...STRONG RIDGE WITH AXIS ORIENTED W-E ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
SETS UP DURING THE PERIOD. THIS LIKELY TO SHUNT MOISTURE INFLUX
SOUTH OF THE STATE AND WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ALREADY OVER
THE CWA TO FUEL DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE LOW GRADE MONSOON FCST. DF
.FGZ...NONE
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SAT SUN MON TON SAT SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 052/080 051/080 052/080 020 040 020 030 020 040
WINSLOW 063/090 063/092 064/092 020 030 020 020 020 030
PRESCOTT 061/089 061/091 062/091 020 030 020 030 020 030
PAGE 073/096 071/097 072/097 020 020 020 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 052/082 053/085 054/085 030 040 030 040 030 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 058/088 059/091 060/091 020 030 020 030 020 040
COTTONWOOD 069/100 069/102 070/102 020 020 020 020 020 020
GRAND CANYON 051/082 050/082 051/082 020 030 020 020 020 030
GREER 048/076 047/076 048/076 040 060 040 050 040 070
HEBER 053/085 052/085 053/085 030 060 030 040 030 060
JACOB LAKE 052/078 051/078 052/078 020 030 020 020 020 030
NAVAJO N.M. 056/082 057/085 058/085 020 030 020 030 020 040
PAYSON 062/094 062/096 063/096 020 020 020 030 020 030
SEDONA 067/098 067/100 068/100 020 020 020 020 020 020
SELIGMAN 054/092 054/094 055/094 010 020 010 020 010 020
SHOW LOW 060/086 059/086 060/086 020 040 020 030 020 040
ST. JOHNS 058/084 058/086 059/086 030 040 030 030 030 040
WUPATKI N.M. 066/092 066/094 067/094 020 030 020 020 020 030In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 19, 9:30 AM MST, 5 hours 21 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-191930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST FRI JUL 19 2002 ...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...INCREASING THE RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING... DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE WIND FLOW ALOFT IS VERY LIGHT SO STORMS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF RECENT DAYS...BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK... SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE RODEO-CHEDISKI AND INDIAN BURN AREAS TODAY. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN NATURE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING. THE CHEDISKI-RODEO BURN AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST RISK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THAT AREA. DF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2:52 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 113 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.