Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Grand Forks, ND

May 28, 2002Otter Tail County, Wilkin County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 28, 2002, 6:40 PM CDT for Otter Tail County, Wilkin County, Minnesota. It was in force for 40 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 28, 2002, 6:40 PM CDT (23:40 UTC)
Expired
May 28, 2002, 7:20 PM CDT
In force
40 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Otter Tail County, MN, Wilkin County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 157 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 28, 6:45 PM CDTHail 1Foxhome, MN
May 28, 7:10 PM CDTHail 1Western, MN

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2002-05-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 5 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2002-05-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -18 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-200 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1323 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 282340
SVRFAR
MNC111-167-290030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
638 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
  EAST CENTRAL WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 720 PM CDT.

* AT 631 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTH OF EVERDELL...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
  EAST OF WAHPETON...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  CARLISLE AT 655 PM AND
  ELIZABETH AT 705 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4633 9656 4621 9637 4609 9623 4645 9606
54

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 28, 2:50 PM CDT, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 28, 2:50 PM CDT, 3 hours 50 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS EARLY PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD.
IN THE EARLY GOING PREFERRED THE AVN SFC FEATURES HOWEVER AVN NOT
PICKING UP VERY WELL ON SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH
SASKACHEWAN WHICH THE ETA COVERED SO WILL USE MIX FOR GRIDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD SW-NE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN ND
INTO N CENTRAL MN. CU BAND HAS RECENTLY BEEN BACKBUILDING THROUGH SE
ND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AM ALSO SEEING DEVELOPING CU FIELD LIKELY AS
A RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH FROM EXTREME SE ND
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THESE BOUNDARIES TO
INTERACT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS AREA HAS SEEN NEARLY FULL
SOLAR ALL DAY. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING WITH CURRENT
INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED CAPE AND APPROACHING SECONDARY WAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST SASK FEEL ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN CHC OF EVENING TSRA OVER ALL BUT FAR NW PTN.AFTER
EVENING CHANCES OF TSRA FROM VALLY EAST WITH PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL
WAVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COLUMN SHOWING
GOOD DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR
WEST SO WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

MORE POTENT WAVE TO AFFECT FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON
EVENING HOURS. NOSE OF UPPER JET REACHES MAINLY NORTHERN FA LATE IN
DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO MORE WELL DEFINED. PRECIPITBLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND WITH OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
SEE SIMILAR RESULTS AS TODAY. THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FORECAST
AREA AND CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL
STAY CONSISTENT AND LEAN TOWARDS WARMER FWC/ETA GUIDANCE.

TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN EVENING MENTION OF
TSRA. NO REAL COOLING SO MILD TEMPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY RAINFREE AS COLUMN DRIES AND
SFC HIGH WORKS EAST. SLIGHT COOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED...
UTILIZED 12Z AVN THRU 168HRS AS BASIS OF FCST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER EXITING AREA ON SATURDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
APPEARS WILL ARRIVE A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER THINKING IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW. WILL INTRODUCE CHC SHRA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE IT
INTO MONDAY.  MRF AND AVN TIMING OFF SOMEWHAT...WITH MRF SHOWING
NEXT SYSTEM FAST ON HITS HEELS ON TUESDAY WHILE AVN SLOWER AND LESS
AMPLIFIED.  ATTM WILL LEAVE TUESDAY AS JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY.  85H
TEMPS SUGGEST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THIS COVERED WELL IN PREV
EXTENDED.

.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER/RIDDLE

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 28, 6:28 PM CDT, 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
628 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0450 PM    1 W SABIN                 MN   .88 INCH HAIL
05/28/02   CLAY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 28, 3:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFNorman25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.