Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Grand Forks, ND

August 14, 2002Roseau County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 14, 2002, 7:23 PM CDT for Roseau County, Minnesota. It was in force for 52 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 14, 2002, 7:23 PM CDT (00:23 UTC)
Expired: Aug 14, 2002, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Roseau County, MN

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 14, 7:50 PM CDT	Hail 2	Strathcona, MN

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 612 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1079 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 128 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 204 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

936 
WUUS53 KFGF 150023
SVRFAR
MNC135-150115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
723 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN ROSEAU COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 720 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF STRATHCONA...OR ABOUT 24 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF ROSEAU...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  TORFIN AT 755 PM AND
  HAYES LAKE STATE PARK AT 815 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4872 9627 4854 9631 4857 9549 4868 9543


06

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 14, 2:24 PM CDT, 4 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 14, 2:24 PM CDT, 4 hours 59 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
224 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCE AND TEMPS

.OVERVIEW...
MAIN SFC LOW MOVING EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST
OF ABR. A FEW 60 DEWPOINTS TRYING TO ADVECT NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES...WITH PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.
MODELS AGAIN AT ODDS THROUGH MOST OF FORECAST...AND WILL LEAN
TOWARDS ETA TODAY AS IT INITIALIZED A BIT BETTER OVERALL.

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT...AS
POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE PASSED THROUGH AREA. WITH FOCUS ALONG COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND IDEAL
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AROUND 9000 FEET...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF REGION...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN DVL
AREA BEHIND FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH MAIN THREAT STRONG WIND/HAIL NEAR STRONG CELLS. BEST SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE IN EASTER ZONES...IF INSOLATION CAN BOOST TEMPS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN UPPER 50S
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND.

.LONG TERM...
PLENTY OF 850-700MB MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN 2/3 OF
REGION THURSDAY...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 70 WILL MEAN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMFRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN LOW/MID 70S
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MN...BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY. WILL REMOVE PRECIPITATION MENTION
ON SATURDAY WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM...WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL.

.EXTENDED...
MAIN CORE OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY FAR
SOUTH FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO PROGRESSIVE
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER CONUS THROUGH PERIOD WITH NEW 12Z AVN PACKAGE
FURTHER SUPPORTING IDEA I.E. FASTER SOLUTION THAN MRF. APPEARS BEST
CONVECTIVE THREAT ATTM SHOULD OCCUR DURING LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS AIRMASS
SOURCE FOR AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM CANADA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE READINGS PREVAILING THROUGH PERIOD.

.FGF...NONE.
KELLENBENZ/BERG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 14, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall	39 min
Aug 14, 8:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	39 min
Aug 14, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	30 min
Aug 14, 9:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grant	35 min
Aug 14, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grant	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.