Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 31, 2002Otter Tail County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 31, 2002, 6:18 AM CDT for Otter Tail County, Minnesota. It was in force for 42 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 31, 2002, 6:18 AM CDT (11:18 UTC)
Expired
Jul 31, 2002, 7:00 AM CDT
In force
42 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Otter Tail County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 188 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 31, 6:20 AM CDTThunderstorm WindOttertail, MNBranches were blown down.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 226 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2002-07-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3426 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2002-07-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 80 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3426 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1178 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
215 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.4
Supercell composite
19.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

680 
WUUS53 KFGF 311118
SVRFAR
MNC111-311200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
617 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  EASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

* AT 615 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF OTTERTAIL...OR ABOUT 25 MILES
  EAST OF FERGUS FALLS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 65 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  HENNING AT 620 AM...
  DEER CREEK AT 625 AM AND
  BLUFFTON AT 630 AM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4645 9569 4627 9563 4618 9518 4663 9520


04

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 31, 3:15 AM CDT, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 3:15 AM CDT, 3 hours 3 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS EARLY TSRA THREAT AND TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD ALTHOUGH PREFERRED SFC
FEATURES FROM ETA EARLY.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SEVERE TSRA. SFC LOW PRESSURE STILL FAIRLY UNORGANIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER FEATURE GAINS BETTER DEFINITION AND SHIFTS EAST TO
WESTERN FA BY MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN THE NEAR TERM SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
TSRA FROM KMVX/KBIS 88S WILL PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH FA EARLY THIS
AM BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM LATE
AM INTO MID AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON TEMPS HOWEVER DO EXPECT A GOOD DOSE OF AFTERNOON SOLAR TO
AID IN DESTABILIZATION. AS SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO AREA.
AT THIS TIME FAVORED AREA FOR INITIATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LESS CAPPING AND ON NOSE OF UPPER
JET. AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION GOOD MID LEVEL
COOLING WILL PUT WHOLE AREA UNDER GUN AS CAP ERODES WITH EXCEPTION
OF FAR NW BEHIND FRONT. SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST OF RIVER THIS
EVENING AND BASED ON FROPA SHOULD EXIT FA BY MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION DIVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT. WE
SHOULD THEN SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AS
SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES CONTROL. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD
OF NEXT WAVE LATE FRIDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN STILL ON TRACK
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED.

.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 31, 5:26 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrant, Otter Tail, Wilkin49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.