Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 20, 2002Mahnomen County, Norman County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2002, 7:43 AM CDT for Mahnomen County, Norman County, Minnesota. It was in force for 47 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 20, 2002, 7:43 AM CDT (12:43 UTC)
Expired
Jul 20, 2002, 8:30 AM CDT
In force
47 min
Issued by
NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Mahnomen County, MN, Norman County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 20, 8:15 AM CDTHail 0.75Mahnomen, MN

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 253 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2002-07-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2002-07-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 36 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1018 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

363 
WUUS53 KFGF 201243
SVRFAR
MNC087-107-201330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
743 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

   MAHNOMEN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND 
   NORMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT.

* AT 742 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF TWIN VALLEY...OR ABOUT 34
  MILES NORTHWEST OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 25
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  FAITH AT 750 AM AND
  MAHNOMEN AT 800 AM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4735 9638 4717 9620 4721 9575 4741 9588


8

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 2:15 AM CDT, 5 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 2:15 AM CDT, 5 hours 28 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
215 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN TEMPS

.OVERVIEW...
SFC TROUGH NOW ENTERING WESTERN ND...ALONG WITH ONE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR PIR...AND ANOTHER IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ALL OF
EASTERN ND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...WITH MID 60S TO THE
EAST IN MN. ETA DID THE BEST JOB INITIALIZING CONVECTION IN WESTERN
ND AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SO WILL USE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.TODAY...
EXPECT ELEVATED ROUND OF CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN
ND...INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING ON HEELS OF 45KT 500MB SPEED
MAX AND 30KT LOW LEVEL JET. BY AFTERNOON...CAPES APPROACH
3000J/KG...ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES AND GOOD
FORCING ALONG SFC TROUGH. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND 18Z FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IN EASTERN ND...THEN MOVING INTO MN BY
EVENING. WITH 50KT NEAR 500MB...GOOD SHEAR AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF 75KT 300MB JET...EXPECT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WHICH MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO MCS AS IT MOVES EAST THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL DROP HEAVY RAIN...SO WILL MENTION IN ZONES
WITH SEVERE WORDING AND LIKELY POPS. REFER TO SWODY1 FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER THROUGH REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY...IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND VORTICITY MAXIMUM. 850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND
+15C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUN. BY MONDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL INSERT SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION IN
NORTHEAST AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE 70S.

.FGF...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RED RIVER NEAR OSLO.

KELLENBENZ

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 5:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-201400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOVE INTO ADJACENT NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AREA OF CONCERN...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TODAY.

TIME...7AM UNTIL 9 PM.

TYPE OF HAZARD...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN THREAT
...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

KELLENBENZ

NNNN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 20, 4:42 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrant48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.