Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 7, 2002Richland County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 7, 2002, 6:50 PM CDT for Richland County, North Dakota. It was in force for 40 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 7, 2002, 6:50 PM CDT (23:50 UTC)
Expired: Jul 7, 2002, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Richland County, ND

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 7, 7:15 PM CDT	Hail 0.88	Walcott, ND
Jul 7, 7:20 PM CDT	Thunderstorm Wind	Colfax, ND	Tree limbs were blown down.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 441 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1051 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 072350
SVRFAR
NDC077-080030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
650 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 645 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF COLFAX...OR ABOUT 22 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF WAHPETON...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  GALCHUTT AT 655 PM AND
  CHRISTINE AT 700 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4656 9707 4638 9702 4637 9674 4658 9679


30
NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 7, 3:10 AM CDT, 15 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 3:10 AM CDT, 15 hours 40 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
310 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS EARLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT BOUNDARY LOCATION
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FAIRLY COMPLEX SFC PATTERN EARLY THIS AM WITH E-W ORIENTED
BOUNDARIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NW MN AND FROM SW SD
INTO CENTRAL MN. UPPER LOW OVER NE PANHANDLE DIPICTED BY 00Z UA
ANALYSIS HOWEVER TOUGH TO PICK OUT FROM WATER VAPOR. THIS FEATURE TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AS IT DOES ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED AND MAIN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG
ND/SD BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING UPSTREAM PRECIPITAITON
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND 850MB DEWPOINTS TO
14C. AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO RIDE ALONG
BOUNDARY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 850MB
CONVERGENCES ALSO INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF ND. ALL THIS
LEADS TO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF
MID LEVEL LOW AND LOOSE THICKNESS GRADIENT. ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY AND
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE KEY HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FA UNDER THE GUN AND WILL HIGHLIGHT ON
WATCH. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AS SFC LOW TRACKS
ALONG BORDER AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE
...HOWEVER THIS WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF SOLAR. CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN HOWEVER WITH MILD START WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SOLAR TO REALIZE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH ARE AGAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WILL
HOWEVER STAY ON LOW END.

MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TO CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD TEMPS UP.

CLOUDS TO LINGER MONDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST.

BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CURRENT PAC NW UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTH CANADIAN PROVINCES. ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE WILL BRING CHANCE
OF PCPN BACK INTO FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH FULL CWFA SUN AND MON.
VOELKER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 7, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Sargent	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.