Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 1, 2002, 10:26 AM CDT for Pembina County, North Dakota. It was in force for 49 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 1, 2002, 10:26 AM CDT (15:26 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 1, 2002, 11:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 49 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Pembina County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 10:45 AM CDT | Hail 0.88 | Joliette, ND |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 306 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1830 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
976 WUUS53 KFGF 011526 SVRFAR NDC067-011615- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 1024 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN PEMBINA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT. * AT 1022 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLASSTON...OR ABOUT 23 MILES NORTH OF GRAFTON...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... HAMILTON AT 1025 AM AND JOLIETTE AT 1035 AM. REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4880 9765 4864 9754 4876 9715 4893 9729 30 NNNN
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 1, 2:10 AM CDT, 8 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 2:10 AM CDT, 8 hours 16 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 210 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2002 FCST CONCERNS TODAY...HIGH TEMPS AND SVR POTENTIAL. .CURRENT... LOW PRESSURE IN SE MT WITH WARM FRONT INTO SW ND AND NCNTRL SD...THEN BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST ACROSS CNTRL MN. POOL OF 70+ DEW POINTS JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN SRN MN...WITH 60S ACROSS ERN SD. 85H LOW LEVEL JET STARTING TO CRANK OUT WEST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH DEVELOPING CLDS NW OF BISMARCK FOR ANY EARLY AM CONVECTION. WILL USE ETA THIS PERIOD AS BELIVE IT HANDLES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BETTER AND INSTABILITIES BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS. .SHORT TERM... ALL THE ACTION IS IN THE FIRST 12-18HRS. SFC LOW WILL TRACK EAST AND BE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS AFTN...THEN MOVE NE ACROSS NRN MN IN THE AFTN. BELIEVE MODEL MOS PRODUCTS TOO LOW IN DEW PTS AND WILL ADJUST TOWARD WHAT SFC DEW PTS ARE GIVEN BY AVN/ETA MODEL OUTPUT. AS SFC LOW MOVES EAST...85H JET INCREASES TOWARD 12Z AND 70+ SFC DEW PTS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK NORTH INTO FAR SE ND AND WCNTRL MN BY MIDDAY. CONVECTION MAY FIRE BEFORE MORNING OUT WEST AND TRACK EAST ON NOSE OF 85H JET THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/ECNTRL MN AS HINTED BY 00Z ETA. OTHERWISE ACTION WILL WAIT TIL 18-21Z TIME FRAME. SFC LOW BY THAT TIME WILL BE NEAR FARGO WITH WARM FRONT TO NR BEMIDJI. TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. AS TEMPS WARM EXPECT CAP TO WEAKEN AND TSRA FORM RIGHT NEAR SFC LOW AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM FAR ERN ND INTO NRN MN. TSRA SHOULD GET STRONGER DURING THE LATER AFTN INTO MN AS CAP FURTHER WEAKENS. NEGATIVE FACTOR IS LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHICH RESIDES IN CANADA. IN SPITE OF THIS...FEEL NEED TO MENTION SVR IN ZONES SE ND INTO NW MN AS CAPES ABV 4000 AND LI TO -8C. PWAT OVER 2 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE 70S...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM ARGUES AGAINST ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. AMT OF INSTABILITY WITH SYSTEM AND WIND PROFILE SUGGEST SUPERCELLS PSBL WITH ALONG AND JUST OF WARM FRONT WITH EARLY DEVELOPING TSRA. .LONGER TERM... TSRA WILL COME TO AN END IN NW MN ZONES EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BRINGING CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE TO BE CONTROL THRU WED WITH DRY AND PLEASANT AIRMASS IN PLACE. CURRENT ZFP SEEMS FINE IN THE LATE PERIODS. .EXTENDED... NO CHANGES ATTM. .FGF...NONE RIDDLE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 1, 6:43 AM CDT, 3 hours 43 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-011400- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 643 AM CDT MON JUL 1 2002 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR EXTREME EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST AND BE LOCATED NEAR FARGO BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR BEMIDJI BY EARLY EVENING. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL RAPIDLY RETURN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS LOW INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CAUSING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF CONCERN... LOCATIONS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TIME... 2 PM UNTIL 8 PM. TYPE OF HAZARD... DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DOES EXIST ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT. RIDDLE NNNN
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.