Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2002

ANOTHER TOUGH FCST WITH TEMPS AND CONVECTION/QPF TOPPING THE LIST.

SFC LOW OVER WRN NEBRASKA WITH WELL DEFINED FRONT INTO SE ND AND
INTO NRN MN...NR A FAR-BJI LINE.  FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH INCH BY
INCH PAST FEW HOURS.  QUITE A CONTRAST WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S AND
DEW PTS NR 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS IN THE 50S NORTH OF
FRONT.   PLACEMENT OF FRONT TO PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMP FCST TODAY AND
MAKE FOR SOME VERY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENTS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOWED ETA SOLN TODAY.  SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE TO
LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS BY LATE TODAY.  CURRENT MCS GETTING
GOING INTO SW ND WILL LIKELY TRACK NE AND AFFECT NW CWFA THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A JMS-GFK-ROX LINE.

AS SFC LOW APPROACHES...SOUTH WINDS WILL NUDGE FRONT NORTH TO NR A
BDE-GFK LINE BY LATE AFTN.  ATMOS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILLL HEAT
INTO THE 80S WITH SFC DEW PTS UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S.  70H TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO COOL AND AS 50H VORT SWINGS NORTHEAST AROUND UPR LOW INTO
CNTRL ND LATER TODAY EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE LATE TODAY ALONG
FRONT IN ERN ND AND THEN TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST THRU NW MN THIS EVENING.
SVR THREAT QUITE REAL TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT DUE TO
RATHER STRONG 50H FLOW AND 50-70H DRYING WHICH ADVECTS EAST RIGHT
BEHIND FRONT.

WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH ALL AREAS.  AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
24HRS PWATS NR 2 INCHES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RAINS.

.LONGER TERM...
SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS UPR LOW REMAINS OVR SRN
SASK.  ANY THREAT FOR -SHRA WILL BE CONFINED TO DVL ZONE.  THEN UPR
LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH LATER TUES NIGHT-WED NIGHT WITH CHC OF -SHRA.

.EXTENDED...
NO CHANGES.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

RIDDLE

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-111430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2002

...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING.  BEHIND
THIS FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN.  HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM AND THEN
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

RIDDLE

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MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-101430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
720 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...

SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BEMIDJI TO FARGO TO
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA.  LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT TODAY. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  THEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END.

AREA OF CONCERN...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING NORTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO GRAFTON TO BAUDETTE LINE.
THEN ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

TIME...FROM 7 AM UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN FROM 3 PM
UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

TYPE OF HAZARD...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND FLOODING.

RIDDLE

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