Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2002

CURRENT WEATHER ANALYSIS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS
BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM AROUND
WACO TO NEAR MIDLAND. 88D RADAR HAS SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINS OCCURRING
OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO BRING
MOIST LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
HAS GENERAL CLOUDINESS OVER ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST WARNING AREA.

CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE ANALYSIS...
AVN PRECIPITABLE WATER KEEP THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REGION VERY WET
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRYING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
SET IN AROUND 00Z THURSDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW AND VALUES INCREASING
AGAIN AROUND 06Z SUNDAY.

NGM...ETA AND THE GFS ALL HAVE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST...A
CANADIAN RIDGE MOVING SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.
TIMING AND DEGREE OF WETNESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CONVECTIVE WEATHER DIFFER WITH EACH OF THE MODELS...BUT OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE THE SAME.

SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO CHANGE WITH MORE OF THE COUNTY
AREA EFFECTED NOW THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED THIS MORNING IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO ISSUANCE.

CURRENT WEATHER OUTLOOK...
LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LIGHT RAIN AND RAINSHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE HAVE SEVERE WEATHER IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND WINDS IN ADDITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBILITY...OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES...EAST OF I-35.

DO TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCE AND THAT THE AVN HAS HANDLED THIS WEATHER
EVENT MUCH BETTER THAN THE ETA...WILL TREND THE FORECAST PACKAGE
TOWARDS THE AVN. HOWEVER...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL SEVER ACTIVITY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF THE COUNTY FORECAST WARNING AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MIDDAY...BUT STILL LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FORECAST...AGAIN LOOK FOR THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HAIL AND WINDS...HOWEVER THE AREA EFFECTIVE BELIEVE
MORE TO THE EAST. WEATHER WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW
DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND AND RAIN ENDING.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY AND YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS 42/52/32/50/33 85000
DRT 40/55/32/47/30 52000
SAT 45/55/35/50/33 83000

.EWX...NONE.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM JARRELL TO CASTROVILLE
AND KENEDY.  THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.