Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
238 PM MDT TUE JUL 16 2002

SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE AND
THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THE SEASON...WHICH IS THE
MID 90S.

DISCUSSION...
AVN/MRF CONTINUE BACKING OFF EASTERLY TROUGH SCENARIO TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO ALL THATS LEFT IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO
DOMINATE THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY SOME SUBTLE
SHIFTS OCCUR WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. CURRENTLY THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE CWA IS CONNECTED WITH THE UPPER PLAINS HIGH. AS THE
PLAINS HIGH DISSIPATES...THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY BECOMES
CONNECTED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH BY THURSDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE A
SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION.

FOR NOW...LOOK FOR BEST CONVECTION TONIGHT OUT WEST WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS FOUND. THE EAST WILL HAVE TO
BATTLE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO KICK OFF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH ETA/AVN SHOWING SURFACE CONVERGENCE MOVING TO
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. LIS ARE NOT GREAT IN THE EAST...THOUGH LAPSE
RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH...AND TROUGH DROPS DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH
MISSOURI VALLEY LOW LIFTING OUT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...ETA SHOWS TROUGH SOUTH OF AREA WHILE AVN STILL HOLDS NEAR
THE AREA. ETA HOWEVER STILL SHOWS H5 COLD ADVECTION FURTHER
DE-STABILIZING THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST.
AS HIGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE MAIN UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST AGAIN. WILL
KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

EL PASO               BB  70/ 93/ 71/ 94/ 72  11213
LAS CRUCES            BB  65/ 94/ 66/ 95/ 67  11213
ALAMOGORDO            BB  66/ 91/ 67/ 93/ 68  11213
CLOUDCROFT            BB  46/ 71/ 47/ 72/ 48  23344
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BB  66/ 92/ 66/ 93/ 67  21213
SILVER CITY           BB  55/ 87/ 57/ 88/ 58  42212
DEMING                BB  66/ 94/ 67/ 95/ 68  31212
LORDSBURG             BB  65/ 95/ 66/ 96/ 67  31212
SIERRA BLANCA         BB  64/ 89/ 65/ 90/ 66  11213

.ELP...NONE

17 HEFNER

N

NMZ022-023-030-031-170400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
105 PM MDT TUE JUL 16 2002

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE GILA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING FROM THE BOOTHEEL AND
GRANT COUNTY INTO WESTERN SIERRA COUNTY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH BLOWING DUST. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT...FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS...STREAMBEDS AND
IN NARROW CANYONS.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO LATE
THIS EVENING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITY
IN BLOWING DUST AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SHOULD WATCH FOR PONDING
ON ROADS OR WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS.

PARK