Special Marine Warning 3, NWS Eureka, CA

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
300 AM PST SAT DEC 14 2002

SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. SQUALL LINE CAME THROUGH NORTH COAST AROUND
0030L...WITHOUT LIGHTNING...BUT STRONG GUSTS.  BACK EDGE OF
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WATER NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST OFF
REDWOOD COAST...AND THEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MUCH LESS...LIKELY
DUE TO WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THUS MORE STABLE. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM...AGAIN LOOKING VERY STRONG...WRAPPING UP AS IT CROSSES
140W...WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT. AVN/GFS IS FASTER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP COMING IN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AVN/GFS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE GENERAL SITUATION WELL
OVERALL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW AS PRIMARY MODEL. MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT OBVIOUSLY RAIN AND WIND. WILL CONTINUE
THE HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 1-3 AND WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 76...BUT
TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATER BASED ON AVN AND ETA MODEL SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...WILL GO WITH AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FOR ZONE
1...LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT FOR 2 AND 3...AND TONIGHT FOR WIND
ADVISORY IN ZONE 76. OVERALL...GRADIENTS AND 850 MB WINDS DO NOT
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM...SO WILL GO WITH
MARGINAL WIND WARNING/ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. AS FAR AS THE PRECIP
SITUATION GOES...WARM ADVECTION INITIALLY STRONGEST NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY...BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE 300 MB DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING JET
MAX...SO WILL MENTION RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT...AND MONDAY AS
WELL. SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FEET...LOCALLY LOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE...BACK ABOVE 5500 FEET
TONIGHT...SO DESPITE HEAVY PRECIP EXPECTED...SHOULD BE MOSTLY IF NOT
ALL RAIN. AS COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL...BUT
PRECIP CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. WOULD EXPECT AT THIS POINT THAT SNOW
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WITH SNOW LEVELS PROBABLY DOWN TO AROUND
3000-4000 FEET...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY...UNTIL
PROBABLY THURSDAY...WITH NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION BACK IN OVER THE COLDER AIR LEFT BEHIND FROM THE SYSTEM
NOW APPROACHING.

.EKA...GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA OUT 60NM.
    ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY PZZ450-455 AND CAZ001-002.
    ...HIGH WIND WARNING CAZ001>003.
    ...WIND ADVISORY CAZ076 TONIGHT.