Special Marine Warning 1, NWS Eureka, CA

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
830 AM PST FRI FEB 22 2002

SYSTEM OFFSHORE IS DEEPENING THIS MORNING. AVN MODEL HAS PICKED UP
ON THIS TO A CERTAIN DEGREE...WITH 1008MB LOW INDICATED BY 00Z JUST
OFF COOS BAY. BUT GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS HAVE
BEEN OVER THE NRN CA WATERS...NOT THE OREGON WATERS. AND SATELLITE
SIGNATURE ALSO POINTS TOWARD CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THE
SYSTEM DEEPENING...THE SLOWER TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEEMS FINE. BUT MAY HAVE TO PUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BACK IN. VAD WIND PROFILE AT KBHX
ALREADY SHOWING SE 30KT AT 3K FT. AND THE AVN SHOWS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 110KT JET DIRECTLY OVER THE REDWOOD COAST AT 00Z. THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ALSO SEEMS GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. STEEPEST LAPSE RATES NOT PROGGED TO COME IN UNTIL MID TO
LATE EVENING AS COLD POOL ARRIVES. BUT LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL BE
ARRIVING IN CONNECTION WITH THETA-E RIDGE AROUND 00Z. MAY PUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES
PLANNED.
TJADEN

POPS CEC 69300 ACV/EKA 58300 UKI 25200

.EKA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO 0-60NM.