Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT THU APR 11 2002

400 PM...

MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THREAT AND STRENGTH OF
CONVECTION MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND WAS
LOCATED FROM NEAR FNB NEB TO HUT KANSAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE AID OF WEAK H7-H3 LAYER DIVERGENCE-Q AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF.
LATEST MSAS DATA SUGGEST SURFACE LIFTED INDICES FROM -2 TO -3 WITH
ETA FORECAST INDICES HANDLING SITUATION WELL. ETA SUGGEST CAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG THIS EVENING WITH THE INSTABILITY DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. AGREE WITH SPC OF KEEPING THREAT OF SEVERE MAINLY WEST
OF CWA...BUT COULD SEE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
EVENING...MAINLY RESTRICTED TO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. PRIMARY
THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE RAIN TO END IN SERN ZONES BY 3 AM. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING DEPICTED
MY MODELS ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER FWC GUIDANCE PREFERRED.

ON SATURDAY...FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT AS MODELS
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING STEADY STREAM OF SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLO. COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CWA TONIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY. CONVECTION OR DEVELOPING MCS MAY
INHIBIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO CWA ON SATURDAY...THUS LIMITING PRECIP
THREAT. WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
NEXT TROF. UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN MUCH MORE VIGOUROUS WITH NEXT TROF
ENTERING PAC NW. MRF SHOWING NO INDICATION OF THAT TROF...HOWEVER
LATEST AVN TRENDING TOWARD OTHER SOLUTIONS. IF OTHER SOLUTIONS
CORRECT...UPPER TROF FOR MIDWEEK TO BE WEAKER AND SLIDE FURTHER
NORTH WITH LESS OF AN IMPACT ON CWA. TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO BE A
LOT WARMER THAN MRF DEPICTS. TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY UNTIL EXTENDED
PROBLEMS RESOLVED...WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF PRECIP FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO BOOST TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

DB

435 AM...
TROUBLE SHOOTING AWIPS PROBLEMS LED TO DELAY. SCT ELEVATED
-SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA FM EC KS THRU NW MO ASSOCD WITH LEADING EDGE OF
PVA AND NR NOSE OF LLVL JET. ACTVTY EXPCD TO WKN BY MID MRNG AS LLVL
JET VEEERS AND SHEARS NE INTO IA. FINALLY GOT A LOOK AT 06Z META AND
IT IS A BIT SLOER THAN ERYR RUNS. LTST MODEL TRENDS FIT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS.

PRIMARY SHRTWV STILL WELL UPSTRM AND VISIBLE ON WV STLT IMAGERY OVR
WRN CO. CURRENT CONEPCEPTUAL MODEL FAVORS HOLDING ONTO LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS MRNG OVR FAR NW MO WHILE REST OF CWA RMNS DRY. THEN WILL
AWAIT ARRIVAL OF CO SHRTWV LTR THIS AFTN. CNVTN SHUD REFORM INVOF OF
CDFNT FM SW IA THRU NW MO INTO CNTRL KS. DUE TO NRLY PARALLEL
STEERING FLOW ACTVTY WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT E UNTIL SQLN ORGANIZES.
THINK SERN CWA WILL STAY REL DRY TILL A DYING SQLN RCHS RGN AFT 02Z.
CNVTN EXPCD TO RCH MKC METRO IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME AND HANG ARND
TILL ARND 06Z.

MID/HI LVL CLDNS GRADLY SHFTG E COMBINED WITH SCT CNVTN WILL PRESENT
A MAX TEMP FCST PROBLEM OVR WRN NW MO/NE KS TODAY. STILL BELIEVE
SERN CWA HAS GD CHC TO WRM INTO UPR 70S/NR 80. WK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOV INTO CWA FOR FRI WITH MINIMAL COOLG. META 2M TEMPS PROG MAX
TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S ON FRI. THIS PROG HAS BEEN RGT MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT AND AGREES MORE FAVORABLY WITH FWC THAN CDR MAV/FAN. WILL LEAN
TWDS MAV TEMPS FOR TMRW.

NEXT CHC PCPN STILL LOOKS LIKE SAT/SAT NGT. CDFNT CURRENTLY APCHG FM
THE NW IS EXPCD TO STALL OVR OK/AR AND RETURN N ON SAT AS ANOTHER
SHRTWV ZIPS E ACRS CNTRL RCKYS/CNTRL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH INCRG ELEVATED WAA SUGS CHC POPS AT A MINIMUM. LTR FCSTS MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE TO LIKELY WORDING. 00Z CNDN/AVN QPF LOOK OVERDONE
BUT HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THEIR CONSISTENT MESSAGE LAST CPL OF
RUNS...I.E. IT IS A GD BET TO RAIN ON SAT. HV TRENDED TWDS COOLER
TEMPS FOR SAT DUE TO EXPCD RAIN/THICKENING CLDS.

NO CHG TO EXTDD FCST PKG.

JULY

.EAX...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.