Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CST WED DEC 18 2002

335 AM...
BUSY NIGHT WITH STORMS AND VARIOUS WATCHES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
ARE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM. RUC MODEL AT
06Z WAS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN KANSAS CITY METRO AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AREA AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DRAWN FURTHER NORTH AND WEST JUST AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...BETTER DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MORE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS PROFILERS SHOWING
850 WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THUS THINK SCATTERED STORMS
AT BEST WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP WITH STORMS MORE LIKELY IN
SOUTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA WHEN FRONT AND UPPER WAVE ENCOUNTERS
850 MB THETA E AXIS TODAY.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STAY OVER AREA ON INTO THURSDAY...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO FORECAST AREA SO AFTER THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY. FORECAST WILL BE
TRICKY AS SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER
MINNESOTA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...BUT GFS MODEL PAINTING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHERN
STREAM CUTTING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND PHASING WITH A WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDDED DATA FOR
RAIN OR SNOW...BUT IN ZONE WORDING WILL KEEP IT DRY AS THERE IS TOO
MUCH QUESTION OF TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THESE WAVES.

NO REALLY COLD AIR TO SPEAK OF AS CANADIAN AIR REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
UNTAPPED AND WESTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS AROUND NORTHERN PLAINS LOW
BRINGS DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS TO HELP MODERATE AIRMASS.

PC

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
601 AM CST WED DEC 18 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL EXPECTED TODAY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
THROUGH 8 AM AREAS THREATENED WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM
CLINTON TO MACON MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM CLINTON
TO CARROLLTON AND UNIONVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI EAST OF A LINE FROM CLINTON TO MACON
MISSOURI AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
CLINTON TO UNIONVILLE MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE KIRKSVILLE AND
SEDALIA AREAS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

PC

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ007-008-013>017-021>024-028>031-037-038-043-
044-053-181230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
551 AM CST WED DEC 18 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780 HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 555 AM CST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  COUNTIES NO LONGER UNDER THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WATCH INCLUDE...

IN MISSOURI:

PUTNAM...SCHUYLER...SULLIVAN...ADAIR...GRUNDY...LINN...LIVINGSTON...
DAVIESS...CALDWELL...CARROLL...RAY...LAFAYETTE...JOHNSON...DEKALB...
CLINTON...CLAY...JACKSON...CASS...BATES...PLATTE.

IN KANSAS:

LEAVENWORTH...WYANDOTTE...JOHNSON...MIAMI...LINN

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
AREA.

LVQ