Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

PROBLEMS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDE CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING AND A LACK OF ANY CAP ALLOWED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN FIRING OFF AROUND EAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE
FIRING ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY
NIGHTS/SATURDAY MORNINGS FRONTAL PASSAGE.  SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE
BROUGHT A RETURN OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE ENTIRE CWA AS
DEW POINTS RANGED AROUND 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.  I EXPECT MOST
OF THE SCATTERED  STORMS TO BLOW THEMSELVES OUT AROUND SUNSET AS
DIURNAL HEATING DISSIPATES.  I HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CORNERS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RUC40 AND MESO ETA ARE BOTH INDICATING SOME
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE.

FOR MONDAY...THE AVN AND ETA MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
EARLY HOURS.  THEREFOR I HAVE PUSHED UP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE IN ANTICIPATION OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A LATE
AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE.  OF COURSE CLOUD COVER AND THE PRECISE
TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH THE TEMPERATURES.  AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...I MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS AS THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREADING ACROSS EAST KANSAS AND WEST MISSOURI AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.  I EXPECT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT.
LOWER...MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAINED
PEGGED ALONG THE FRONT.  LATEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WOULD INDICATE
ENOUGH ROTATION ALONG THE FRONT TO HELP ORGANIZE LINES OF SEVERE
STORMS...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL ACTIVITY.  WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO COOL TO -10 C AND BELLOW RANGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE OUR BEST BET FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  GIVEN
ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT THOUGH STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO PRESENT A
THREAT.

FOR TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTH RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUD COVER...POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION...AND A COOLER AIR MASS WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN.  I HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MIGHT
HAVE TO REVISE THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN TOMORROW AS I SEE WHAT KIND
OF COOL SURFACE AIR IS FOLLOWING THE FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ENOUGH DRY AND COOL AIR WILL HAVE PUSHED
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI TO PUSH MOST OF THE LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

PCPN THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED PDS WITH SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS.  ON THURSDAY...SOME CHANCE FOR WAA
SHOWERS AS SFC LOW STARTS TO WIND UP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SILENT 20S...AS IT LOOKS LIKE BEST LOCATION FOR THIS
TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.  AVN/MRF THEN TRIES TO PIN DOWN A
FRONT COMING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD HAVE IT
ACROSS CWA EARLY SUNDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT
TIMING...SO HATE TO INTRODUCE DAY 7 POPS.  PLAN ON HOLDING OFF FOR
ANOTHER MDL RUN. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE JUST TAKING A SLOW
WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CUTTER/LVQ

217 PM...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE FOR PRECIP. AFTERNOON HEATING AND NO CAP HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. NO REAL BOUNDARIES TO NOTE SO WILL INCLUDE SMALL POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NRR

430 AM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EVOLVING FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY THIS WEEK.  THE JET STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
FORECAST TO BUCKLE AND BRING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE MONDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
WILL HAVE ITS BEST SHOT IN SEVERAL WEEKS FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EPISODE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING
THE UPPER WAVE OVER ALBERTA AND DROPPING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES IN THE ETA AND AVN ARE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE HEIGHT
AND PRESSURE FIELDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  I PREFER THE 06Z ETA
PRECIPITATION FIELDS OVER EITHER OF THE 00Z RUNS.  I BELIEVE THAT
STORMS WILL HOLD CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.  THERE IS LITTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE A 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT, AND 700-300MB MEAN WIND VECTORS PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT WILL KEEP STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY.  WITH THIS SAID, I
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN THUNDER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  I UPGRADED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY
THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.  A SECONDARY WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE ETA
AND AVN TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY PROVIDING KANSAS AND
MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT RAINS.  ALL VERY WELCOME
AFTER A LONG, DRY SUMMER.

KOCH

.EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

* HAZARDS EXPECTED -
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI TOMORROW. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID MORNING IN THE
SAINT JOSEPH AND MARYVILLE AREAS. THE CITIES OF CHILLICOTHE...KANSAS
CITY...KIRKSVILLE...WARRENSBURG...AND SEDALIA WILL EXPERIENCE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION -
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION: AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR STRONG STORMS. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA EARLY ON MONDAY. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY
BY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME STORMS IN THIS LINE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

NRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 PM    EXCELSIOR SPRINGS         MO   .75 INCH HAIL
08/11/02   CLAY                           REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

MJ