Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
305 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
PART OF FORECAST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE HEAT ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG NEAR THE NORTHERN PART
OF FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL BE BRINGING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA...WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT NORTHERN MISSOURI AT TIMES. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 70. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
TRICKY...BUT SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA FOR SURE WILL STAY IN THE HOT AND
MUGGY AIRMASS ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 850 TEMPS WOULD INDICATE THE
WARMEST AIR WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL GO AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THERE ON FRIDAY. WITH
THE TEST OF THE SUBSTITUTE MODELS AT 12Z THIS MORNING...HAVE ENOUGH
DOUBT ABOUT THE FORECAST TO NOT EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO THE
WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HANDLE THAT WHEN WE GET
TO OUR NORMAL MODEL RUNS AT 00Z.

PC

118 PM...
IN THE EXTENDED...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TWO POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKERS
ARE FORECAST...THE FIRST INVOLVING A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AND THE SECOND BEING AN ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...SPREADING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE FRONT/IMPULSES SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
AREA TO NOT INITIATE CONVECTION. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

LS

1130 AM...
WILL DO A SHORT TERM REVISION TO ZONES FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS.
WILL BE WATCHING REMNANTS OF MORNING CONVECTION FOR POTENTIAL
BOUNDARIES TO REFIRE ALONG.  ALSO CONCERNED WITH THETA E ADECTION
INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
POTENTIAL AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. BETTER THETA E ADVECTION
SETS UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST...WHICH MAY INITIATE STORMS
THAT COULD ROLL IN OVERNIGHT.

PC

518 AM...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. MCS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. DO
NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT VERY FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE POPS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
FOCUS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT POPS IN FOR THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW...FROM
19C TO CLOSE TO 24C. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. KEPT HIGHS AROUND 90 IN
THE EAST.

FORECAST AREA IS ON THE EDGE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. NEXT GOOD SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO
GET PRECIP IN THE SOUTH.

SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM FRIDAY...AND STAY HOT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HIGH TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORY.

NRR

.EAX...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY FOR ZONES
KSZ025...KSZ057...KSZ060...KSZ102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY FOR ZONES
MOZ011>013...MOZ020>022...MOZ028>030...MOZ037>038...MOZ043>044...MOZ0
53>054.