Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
230 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2002

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO GOING FCST.  WEAK COLD FRONT STILL SINKING
SOUTH...WITH TSRA CURRENTLY FIRING JUST EAST OF CWA ALONG I70. WITH
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE FRONT...AND ALSO IN AREA AROUND
SOUTHEASTERN KS. SINCE THERE IS NO CAP AND CU ALREADY FORMING...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED POPS INTO THE EVENING FOR SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH...WHICH WILL REMOVE THE
OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR TSRA FROM CWA. ON FRI/SAT...THE ETA SHOWS SOME
THETA/E ADV IN ERN CWA.  AND BOTH AVN/ETA SHOW MOISTURE AT H8 AND
INCREASING DPTS.  THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT SEVERAL
WEAK IMPULSES WANDERING THROUGH IT.  FOR NOW...WILL EXPECT TO SEE
PLENTIFUL DIURNAL CU...AND WILL LEAVE OUT TSRA CHCS.  H8 TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE +18-20 C RANGE...AND HIGHS/LOWS SHOULD BE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90...UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

LVQ

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
230 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2002

ONLY CONCERN NEXT FEW DAYS IS THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO LOCATE EXACT POSITION OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
BELIEVE THAT IT IS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF KIRKSVILLE TO NEAR ST.
JOSEPH. LATEST MOISTURE IMAGERY ALONG WITH PROFILERS ALSO INDICATE
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...MOVING SOUTH. ETA SLOWEST IN MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AND HAS IT SITTING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR AT 18Z. AVN AND NGM HAVE FRONT ABOUT 50 MILES FURTHUR SOUTH AT
18Z. BASED UPON LATEST POSITION...BELIEVE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...A COMPRIMISE BETWEEN MODELS. WITH NO CAP IN
PLACE...FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES AROUND -5. ONCE AGAIN...MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO AT THE TIME OF MAXIMIUM HEATING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB...LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

IF FRONT IS SLOWER AS ETA SUGGESTS...DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO INSERT A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE METRO AND AREAS TO THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS IN IOWA ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
THE DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO NORTHERN ZONES TODAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT DRYING TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A
WEAK CHAOTIC UPPER PATTERN EXITS WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SINCE UPPER RIDGE NOT PARTICULARY STRONG...TEMPERATURES TO STAY
AROUND 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO
MENTION.

DB

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.