Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
206 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

WEAK COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH VERY
SLOWLY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THAT...HOWEVER FINAL PLACEMENT
DIFFERS QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE AVN AND ETA. THE AVN GRADUALLY
PUSHES IT TO NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE THE ETA HANGS IT UP AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER. PREFER AN
AVN/ETA COMPROMISE...HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

SURFACE BASED CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS FROM 2000-3000J/KG...WITH
LI/S FROM -3 TO -6. SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME ENHANCED SHEAR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE INITIAL STORM...WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGER. BEST
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TOMORROW...BUT AS WAS STATED
BEFORE...EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDDAY. DESPITE BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT...DEW POINTS ARE NOT
FALLING OFF VERY QUICKLY. SO WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO BRING A FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AS TIMING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS STILL
A QUESTION. FEEL CHANCES AT THIS POINT ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAY 7.

NRR

315 AM...
ALL QUIET ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRONT THIS MORNING...AS CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART.  SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
AND SHOULD MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT.  HIGH
THETAE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH ETA SBCAPE
OF GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG PREDICTED FOR LATER TODAY.  WITH LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...THERMODYNAMIC AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION. CAP BEGINS TO ERODE
ACROSS NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...SO
INTRODUCED CHANCE OF MORNING STORMS IN THIS AREA.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK...SO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...SO LEFT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE SHEAR ZONE
FROM ARKANSAS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR.

AS FRONT OOZES SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD REACH THE KANSAS
CITY...WARRENSBURG AND BOONVILLE AREAS BY EARLY EVENING...AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES BY MID-EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK WEAK...SO
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS
DISPLAY SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED-V LOOK BY THIS EVENING...SO COULD
SEE ISOLATED MICROBURST ACTIVITY.  STORMS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER BY LATE EVENING...AND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY THURSDAY.  DO TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRONT...CHANCE OF STORMS
ALONG SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES THURSDAY LOOKS REASONABLE.  THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO AREA.  THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WILL OFFER A BREAK FROM THE WARM WEATHER OF RECENT DAYS.  AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCE BY EAST COAST TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HEAT OF BUILDING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AFTER TODAY AND THURSDAY...DO
NOT SEE ANY GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.  AVN SHOWING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
AXIS OF BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE WELL WEST OF FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SF

HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS/ZONES FOR MORNING HOURS. HAVE TAKEN
OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS DIMINISHED...AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING.

LS

EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-270000-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

* HAZARDS EXPECTED -
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING.  THE
THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM IN THE
MARYVILLE...BETHANY...ROCKPORT...AND PRINCETON AREAS.  SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER PRIOR TO 6 PM...AND
THEN MOVE INTO THE WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA...AND PAOLA AREAS BY
SUNSET.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION -
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AS EARLY AS 2 PM.  STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SAINT JOSEPH...CHILLICOTHE...AND KIRKSVILLE AREAS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.  EARLY EVENING IS THE BEST BET FOR KANSAS CITY...
WARRENSBURG...AND SEDALIA.

DISCUSSION: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.  A FEW HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT TODAYS
WARM AIRMASS IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SWATHES OF LARGE HAIL.
ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK TODAY...SO STRONG STORMS WILL
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT LIFE SPAN.  STORMS WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT ON AFTERNOON HEATING...SO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
9 PM.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

KOCH