Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

SAT IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX TRANSLATING EWD FROM S ROCKIES INTO S
HIGH PLAINS ATTM. SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-44 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A FEW CELLS
DRIFTING N OF BOUNDARY INTO EXTREME S CWA. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
SHIFT E OF CWA BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO
EJECT ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. STRONG DPVA/H7-3 Q VECTOR CONV PROGGED
BY MODELS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND WITH FAIRLY SATURATED AIRMASS
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THUS HAVE INCLUDED 30 POPS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG AND S OF AN MCI TO MOBERLY LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT E OF CWA BY SUNRISE. OTHER CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ATTM...IT APPEARS
CLEARING WILL NOT TAKE PLACE ACROSS W ZONES UNTIL AROUND 10Z OR
THEREAFTER. ALSO...NW GRADIENT APPEARS TO REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION. HOWEVER GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL IF SKIES DO CLEAR EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS LIMITED...DENSE FOG
MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT
PASS IDEAS ON TO EVENING SHIFT.

OTHERWISE QUIET WX EXPECTED THRU TUES NIGHT. H5 RIDGE AXIS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY ACROSS ROCKIES MON/TUES WITH CWA REMAINING IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO CWA. PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE BL
MIXING TO H85 MON/TUES...SO EXTRAPOLATED THIS DOWN TO SFC FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPS...ADDING ON A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
INTENSE DIABATIC HEATING...GIVEN FULL SUNSHINE AND HIGH SUN ANGLE.
MON NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER SHOT AT FOG...WITH PLENTY OF SFC
MOISTURE LEFT OVER...ALONG WITH RIDGE SITTING OVERTOP OF CWA AND
CLEAR SKIES. TUES FLOW TURNS MORE SLY AS SFC RIDGE PASSES E OF
CWA...ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT OF A WARMUP.

1220 PM...
DAYS 4-7...MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVING WITH REGARD TO UPR TROF AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO APPROACH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HAVE MOVED UP THE ONSET OF TS/RAIN
TO THURSDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE RETURN AND SYSTEM POSITION WILL BE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED ACTIVITY. ENSEMBLE MEANS SLOWING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION SOMEWHAT...SO WILL NOT ADD PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW. 12Z AVN ALSO HINTING THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS. EXPECT TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROF DAYS 3-4 TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY.

LS

330 AM...
MAIN FCST PRBLM TDY INVOLVES TIMING TO END TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS FA.
SFC FRNT CURRNTLY ABOUT HALFWAY THRU...WITH 8H FRNT HUNG UP IN NRN
CWA.  COUPLE DIFFERENT BATCHES OF PCPN GOING ON RIGHT NOW.  IN THE
NW CORNER...SOME ELEVATED TSRA THAT ARE FEEDING OFF OF THE H8 FRNT.
IN THE SRN CWA...ACTIVITY IS STILL FAIRLY SFC BASED COMING OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL KS.  THIS MCS SHUD GENRLY FOLLOW THE H8-H3 THKNS...AND
HEAD ENE THE REST OF THE MORNING...AHEAD OF THE SFC FRNT.  THE FRONT
HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND WITH DIFFLUENCE AT UPPER LEVELS...SO HAVE THE
STORMS. THIS HAS CAUSED MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS.  WILL PLAN ON
KEEPING THE ALREADY-POSTED FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR ALL
BUT THE NORTHWEST CWA.  WHILE THE SRN COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR
MORE WATER...ANYTHING ABOVE AND BEYOND WHAT THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED WILL ADD TO THE PRBLMS THERE.  DONT THINK
THERE IS MUCH OF A SVR POTENTIAL IN THE WATCH AREA...BUT WILL HANG
ON TO IT FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.  OTRW...HAVE ENDED RAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.  HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHGS TO
GOING ZONES...MAINLY LOWERED TEMPS JUST A LITTLE FOR TDY.

LVQ

.EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

* HAZARDS EXPECTED -
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A MOUND CITY KANSAS...TO
HIGGINSVILLE TO MACON LINE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THIS LINE...HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION -
MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF A MOUND CITY KANSAS TO HIGGINSVILLE TO MACON
LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...IS INTERACTING WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE FRONT...AND AFFECT AREAS
SOUTH OF A MOUND CITY KANSAS TO MACON LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...FURTHER AGGRAVATING
THE FLOODING SITUATION. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

SEAMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
116 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0100 PM    BUNCETON                  MO   .88 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   COOPER                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
501 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0458 PM    5 SW LA CYGNE             KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   LINN                           REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.