Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
430 AM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVED OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 3 AM. HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WERE THE SEVERE WEATHER VERIFIERS FOR THE EVENT.  MUCH
THE SAME LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF US AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.

AVN AND ETA MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THIS
MORNINGS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY AS A
LARGE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS WEST NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MO/IA/NE/KS BORDER REGION
TONIGHT. WITH THE LLJ POINTING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM
OKLAHOMA...L.I.S HIGH AND THE CAP IS LOW... ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS A GOOD BET FOR TONIGHT.  I AM EXPECTING THE BEST
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TO BE IN NORTH MISSOURI AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE RETREATED TO THE NORTH WITH THE HELP OF
THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE WEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  HIGH
THETA-E AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY
NIGHTFALL. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE DRAGGED THROUGH THE CWA BY THE RETREATING LOW.  THIS SHOULD
GIVE USE A FEW DAYS BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION.

THE WHOLE PATTERN LOOKS TO TRY AND REPEAT ITSELF FOR THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WAA
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH IMPULSES CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF YET ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH.  THEREFOR...HAVE CONTINUED
TO HOLD ONTO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WEST NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS.

CUTTER

.EAX
MO...FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY MORNING...
ZNS011>015-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054
KS...FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY MORNING...ZNS025-057-060-102>105

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
546 AM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

* HAZARDS EXPECTED -
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO CHILLICOTHE TO MACON. THE
PRIMARY THREATS ARE VERY HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REDEVELOPING FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION -
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.

DISCUSSION: A BOUNDARY...LOCATED FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EAST INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
SPINS UP OVER WEST KANSAS.  THE WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL FLOW NORTH...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS ON ALREADY SATURATED AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

RC