Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
207 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

SURFACE FRONT AT 18Z WAS FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH FAR NE IA
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR OMA. THIS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS MODELS
HAD FORECAST AND THUS FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MAINLY SHORT TERM WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POPS IN FIRST PERIOD. THEN FOCUS ON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEEKEND.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT
STORMS THAT COVERGED OVER EASTERN IA HAD EXITED TO SE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CI DEBRIS SHIELD HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
OVER MOST OF CWFA. THINNING CLOUDS TO WEST SHOULD ALLOW RAPID
WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION IN IA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL TO NE IA WAS
INTERSECTING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND ASSISTING SEVERE CONVECTION
ALREADY SEEN IN FAR NE AND SW IA. WITH FROPA DELAYED...SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. 18Z SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS CENTER EAST OF QUAD CITIES INDICATES FRONT AND CURRENT SEVERE
STORMS IN NE IA SHOULD BUILD SE THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE HIGHEST
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY IA ZONES
NORTH OF I-80...WITH SOME CONTINUING INTO EVENING ALONG FRONT INTO
NW IL AND FAR NE MO.  PER SPC MCD... WATCH MAY BE ISSUED AND WILL
WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE FOR SEVERE WORDING.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT WITH FRONT LAYING OUT FROM ABOUT
FREEPORT TO IOWA CITY BY 00Z. NGM HAD BEST QPF PLACEMENT FOR MORNING
CONVECTION...THEN MODELS SHOW GREATER VARIABILITY BY 00Z AND 06Z.
ETA HAD FARTHEST NORTH PLACEMENT OF SIGNIFICANT INTO NW IL THROUGH
12Z AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE LOOKING AT UPPER QG FORCING AND
DELAYED TIMING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL THUS GO WITH LIKELY
POPS TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT NW OF CID-DBQ LINE...WHERE POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT SURFACE THURSDAY WITH
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. MIXING TO H85 WOULD PRODUCE LOWER 80S
AND WILL GO CLOSE MOS GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER CWFA BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS
WARMING TREND AND CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH REST OF WEEK INTO
WEEKEND AND WILL TREND TOWARD WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. FOR
EXTENDED...MEDUIM RANGE MODELS NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERLIES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MONDAY NOW LOOKS DRY AND WILL REMOVE TSRA CHANCES...BUT
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CWFA.

IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1113 AM    ARGYLE                    IA   FUNNEL CLOUD
06/26/02   LEE                            TWO FUNNEL CLOUDS
                                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTERS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1033 AM    4 W MT HAMILL             IA   TORNADO
06/26/02   LEE                            REPORTED BY FARMINGTON
                                          FIRE CHIEF.