Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

MSAS INDICATED PRESSURE FALL AXIS ACRS EAST CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL IL
LIGHTING WAY OF EVENTUAL SFC WAVE PROPAGATION...MUCH LIKE LATEST AVN
SUGGESTS. SCTRD STRONG ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
H85 FRONT ACRS FAR SOUTHERN CWA...SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS BEST
THTA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE AT THAT LEVEL SHIFTS EAST. FOLLOWING
IN THE WAKE PROBABLY JUST SOME WIDELY SCTRD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACRS THE
SOUTH UNTIL AROUND 04-05Z OR SO. FURTHER NORTH...MAIN OVER-RUNNING
RAIN SHIELD/SECONDARY DEF ZONE TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PROBABLY WARRANTING AT LEAST LIKELY POPS
OVER NORTHERN THIRD AND 50 POPS ACRS CENTRAL AFTER MID EVENING. WILL
WATCH REGIONAL 88D TRENDS TOWARD ISSUANCE TIME. AS SFC LOW PULLS AWAY
ACRS THE NORTHERN HOOSIER STATE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...EXPECT A
NORTHWEST SURGE OF WIND TO INUNDATE MOST OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH.

CWA TO BE BATHED IN TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ON THU AS NORTHERN STREAM
VORTEX ROLLS OVER WI AND THE NORTHERN GRT LKS. NOW APPEARS ONLY
AFFECT TO PRODUCE CU FIELD ACRS NORTHEAST THIRD WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES....BUT NOTHING WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING COULDNT
HANDLE. WITH EXTENT OF H85 CAA AND MIXING...TEMP GUIDANCE(LM 50S) IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOKS REASONABLE...EVEN WITH THE NOW EXPECTED
GREATER AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. INSOLATION AND LAPSE RATES TO INSURE
ENOUGH MIXING TO CREATE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND ON THU AS WELL.

AS UPPER AND LOWER RIDGING BUILDS ACRS THE REGION...MOSTLY CLEAR AND
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THUR NIGHT.  LOWS ACRS NORTH
MAY DIP INTO LOW TO MID 30 RANGE...WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF
AROUND 30 DEGREES OR SO. RETURN FLOW AND SOME WAA TO ALLOW RECOVERY
BACK INTO 60S ON FRI.

.LONGER RANGE(SAT-WED)...WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND
WITH DEEPENING OF WESTERN INTERMOUNTAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER THE AREA TO BRING MUCH
WARMER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL TRY
TO PICK OUT DAYS WITH LEAST PRECIP POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY BE HARD TO
WEED OUT AT THIS TIME. EUROPEAN AND MRF SEEM TO TREND MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SURGING UP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO MAIN
EJECTING WAVES...BUT NOCTURNAL COMPLEXES POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ALMOST NIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL TREND SAT DRY WITH SLOWER FROPA
LATER SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE TO GO ALMOST DAILY THREAT AFTER THAT.
AGAIN PROJECTED THERMAL PARAMETERS EASILY SUPPORT 70S FOR HIGHS
THROUGH PERIOD...AND IF ANY INSOLATION AND PRECIP BREAKS OCCUR ON TUE
AND WED...SOME 80S A GOOD BET.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
444 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 PM    DENMARK                   IA   .25 INCH HAIL
05/01/02   LEE                            REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.