Alert archive / Iowa / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Quad Cities, IA
NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 1, 2002, 11:24 PM CDT for Jefferson County, Van Buren County, Iowa. It was in force for 66 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 1, 2002, 11:24 PM CDT (04:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 2, 2002, 12:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- NWS Quad Cities, IA
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Jefferson County, IA, Van Buren County, IA
The radar
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 11:30 PM CDT | Thunderstorm Wind 61 E | Fairfield, IA | The northwest portion of the Maharishi University of Management campus sustained considerable damage. At least 20 trees were blown over, mainly along Zimmerman Boulevard. One vehicle and two trailers were also damaged, and the entire length of a fence around |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 8:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 277 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -113 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1072 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 55 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 288 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 564 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 2.1
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 1, 2:05 PM CDT, 9 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 1, 2:05 PM CDT, 9 hours 19 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 205 PM CDT TUE OCT 1 2002 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING FOR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL SW FLOW STRENGTHENING AS WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER SERN U.S. MSAS PLACES SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NW IA THROUGH ERN NE INTO WAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS EMBEDDED S/W OVER ERN NE AT 18Z WHICH SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FROM CENTRAL INTO E CENTRAL/NE IA. TSRA LIGHTING ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF CLUSTER AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY OVER NE MO/CENTRAL IL. IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT MOVING ERN NE IMPULSE ENE INTO WI THIS EVENING AND SHOVING SURFACE FRONT SE TO NEAR A STJ-MLI-RFD LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS...ESPECIALLY AVN...ADVERTISING A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT AS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA JET INCREASES TO AROUND 12OKTS AND WITH A 100KT JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL NE BY 12Z WED. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 FRONT OVER IA AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT...GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE AND FOCUS FOR SOME DECENT RAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY HAS HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED AND WILL CONTINUE. A SURFACE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY KEEPS FRONT FROM MOVING MUCH WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO IL/NRN MO BY 00Z THURSDAY. WILL TAPER POPS OFF NORTH AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND KEEP AT LEAST LIKELYS GOING SOUTH FOR RAIN/TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG S/W LIFTING OUT OF S.W. TROUGH. BY 12Z AVN PLACES FRONT OVER NW CORNER OF CWA. THE ETA IS NOT QUITE AS AGRESSIVE PLACING FRONT NEAR A CID/DBQ LINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. AVN HAS BEEN THE PREFFERED MODEL ALL ALONG AND WILL TREND TOWARD THE AVN SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AVN MOVES SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A HEADACHE WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WAFFLING OVER CWA NEXT FEW DAYS. AGAIN AVN IS THE PREFERRED MODEL ...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS. .EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY S/W ENERGY MOVING OUT OF WESTERN U.S. WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY. TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH MRF/CANADIAN SUGGESTING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH REGION EARLY SUNDAY...BUT UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH SURFACE TROF OVER THE FRONT RANGE AT 12Z SUNDAY. 12Z AVN IS ALSO SHOWING SYSTEM DIGGING AND CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY...WHICH ALSO LENDS SUPPORT FOR SLOWER SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND INTRODUCE SHRA FOR SUNDAY. SINCE THERE IS SOME CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL STAY A LITTLE ABOVE MEX NUMBERS FOR MONDAY. .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Iowa, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.