Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Detroit, MI

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
325 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE HANDLING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DIFFERENTLY. AVN AND ETA-XX
BOTH WEAKEN THE NEXT VORT MAX AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING... WHILE THE ETA STRENGTHENS IT. IF WE GO WITH THE ETA
SOLUTION THEN I WOULD HAVE TO KEEP A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE AVN/ETA-XX SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE
SHOWS UP IN THE TEMPERATURES AT BOTH 500 AND 700 MB. ETA IS SLOWER
IN MOVING THE COLD POOL OFF TO THE EAST... ESPECIALLY AT 700MB AND
THIS ALLOWS MORE INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM ADVECTION ALREADY INDICATED ON THE UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT THE ETA MAY BE
TRYING TO HOLD ONTO THE COLD POOL TOO LONG AND THUS THE AVN/ETA-XX
SOLUTIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TRUTH. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOWING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST AND
MOST OF IT SHOULD AFFECT THE THUMB. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
EVENING IN THE THUMB AND JUST CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

NICE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM AROUND PLUS 8C TO PLUS 10C. THIS GRADUAL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING PLUS 15C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

EXTENDED...
SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN EITHER STALLING OUT OR DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION THAT DAY
WITH INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LIFTED INDEX DOWN NEAR ZERO AND
CAPE VALUES NEAR A 1000 JOULES. HOWEVER... I ALWAYS GET CONCERNED
ABOUT ANY BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT OVER OUR AREA DURING THE SUMMER.
USUALLY THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE... INSTABILITY... AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR TO FRONT TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY... BUT DROP THEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING.

.DTX...NONE.

KEYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC, MI
320 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0243 PM    3 SW ST CLAIR             MI   .75 INCH HAIL
06/17/02   ST CLAIR                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

0245 PM    ST CLAIR                  MI   .75 INCH HAIL
06/17/02   ST CLAIR                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

SF

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-180200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
406 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

HAZARD...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING...PRODUCING HAIL TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR
THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION. YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST
FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE.

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

BRAVENDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC, MI
443 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0350 PM    FLAT ROCK                 MI   .75 INCH HAIL
06/17/02   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

JHB