Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Detroit, MI

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
248 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 300MB JET OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY IS RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE LFQ FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT.  SURFACE
COOL FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING QUICKLY.  THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.  MODELS
HANDLE THE SITUATION QUITE SIMILAR WITH EXPECTED FROPA RIGHT AROUND
06Z.  WITH HIGH HELICITY VALUES AND SURFACE BASED LI/S NEAR -2C AND
CAPES IN THE MID 100S (CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG NEAR THE BORDER)...SOME OF
THESE CELLS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS...BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.  THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS AND LIFT IS FORECAST. SHORT WAVE
ANALYZED ON THE H2O VAPOR OVER MINNESOTA WAS CAPTURED WELL IN THE
12Z RUNS AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH CAA UNDERWAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH 1000-850 THICKNESSES ABOVE 1300 DAM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT (SECONDARY) MOVES THRU BY EVENING.  THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE
TAKES SHAPE WITH MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUT MOISTURE BECOMES
TRAPPED UNDER THIS INVERSION AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES TO REACH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.  BY
TUESDAY WE RETURN TO A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT MOISTURE MAY BE
HARD TO ERODE.  NEXT SYSTEM DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BUT CONVERGENCE AND THERMODYNAMICS WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EVOLVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS HUDSON BAY LOW AND DEVELOPING EAST COAST
DEVELOP.  AN IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA FOR AN AREA OF PRECIP
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.  A BIT
CONCERNED ABOUT INITIAL PRECIP TYPE WITH COOL SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT FROM THE NORTHEAST.  MIGHT SEE
A LITTLE MIXTURE BEFORE A CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.  ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TOWARD AN UNSETTLED REGIME
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRONTAL ZONE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
STATE.  POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM COMES ASHORE BY WEEKS END WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SORRY FOR THE BREVITY OF THIS...WATCH RADAR VERY CLOSELY.  ICS GRIDS
AVAILABLE.

.DTX...NONE.

BGM

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1052 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

.DAY ONE..
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
A WARM AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU
CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

WEB SITE

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

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