Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Detroit, MI

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
345 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2002

LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WEAK FRONT WAS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT NORTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. 500 MB SHORTWAVE FROM
THIS MORNINGS MCS OVER WI WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. GIVEN CAPES ON LAPS AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP/CIN
LEFT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
THEN DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT BY AROUND 03Z. WITH THE HIGH CAPES...COULD
STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IF THERE ARE ENOUGH COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.

PAST THIS EVENING...QUIET BUT HOT FORECAST IN STORE. AVN APPEARS TO
HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AND NOT ONLY BRINGS A FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MI ON MONDAY...BUT HOLDS ONTO A FAIRLY STRONG 50H
SHORTWAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.  ETA...NGM AND ETAXX ALL
INDICATE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN THAT OF THE AVN. EXPECT CURRENT
FRONT TO WASH OUT TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DROPS
INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY. ETAXX AND NGM HAVE THE STATIONARY POSITION FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH THAN THE ETA AND WILL USE THAT FOR THIS FORECAST.

MCS OVER NORTHERN MN WILL BACKBUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND A PORTION WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
THEREFORE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WE WILL HAVE
FEW BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR SUNDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS INDICATE THAT CAPES ON SUNDAY WILL
REACH AROUND 2500 J/KG...BUT THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY...LACK OF BOUNDARIES...AND MORE CIN. EXPECT SOME CU TO
DEVELOP FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. WITH MORE SUN TO START
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...TEMPS SHOULD SORE INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE CWA.

MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY...EXCEPT NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. AGAIN
CAPES COULD APPROACH 2500 J/KG...BUT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION...MOISTURE IS LACKING EXCEPT AT
THE SURFACE...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE NEAR HURON COUNTY AS IT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THAT FRONT. ALSO
WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY AND A LAKE BREEZE
COULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GIVE HURON COUNTY A 30 POP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED...
UKMET...MRF AND CANADIAN IN DECENT AGREEMENT. ETAXX A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF UPPER RIDGE AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MID WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
EXTENDED. 500 MB RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING WITH SOME WEAKNESS
IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 500 MB SHORTWAVES AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TROF
SETS UP OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.  THIS TROF WILL BRING
DEEP NW FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.DTX...NONE.

RBP