Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
310 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2002

SYSTEM TO PULL OUT TODAY WITH MAIN PROBLEMS ON ENDING OF PCPN...
TEMPS AND HOW HIGH WINDS GET IN TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND DEEPENING SFC
LOW.  CURRENTLY...SFC LOW CONSOLIDATING NEAR KORC WITH WIDESPREAD
TSRA ACRS NORTHERN AND WESTERN IA.  RAINFALL GENERALLY AROUND ONE
HALF INCH PER HOUR BUT LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACRS W CWA HAS HAD
RATES FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.  SO FAR NO WATER PROBLEMS AND AS LINE
PROGRESSES TO THE EAST...WL SEE RAIN END IN WESTERN ZONES BY
ISSUANCE TIME.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WL PUSH RAPIDLY EAST TODAY AND SHOULD
CLEAR ALL OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING.  LITTLE PCPN EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER REMAINING DEF ZONE PCPN MAY SKIM
FAR NORTH EARLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE ENDING.  TEMPERATURES WL BE AT
THEIR PEAK EARLY TODAY WITH STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...WINDS BECOME AN ISSUE WITH STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE LOW ALONG WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE.  COORDINATION CALLS
CAME TO A CONSENSUS OF WINDS GENERALLY BELOW WIND CRITERIA AND GOING
FORECAST OF 20 TO 30 MPH APPEARS GOOD WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  MYERS
WIND RULE ALSO SUPPORTS GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND WL CONTINUE CURRENT
WORDING.

COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING ALONG WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDINESS ACRS THE
NORTH AS WAVE PASSES THE STATE.  NEXT SYSTEM WL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AVN HAS BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ETA MUCH
WEAKER.  CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY STILL LOOKS IN LINE AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED IN EITHER
CASE.  WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF
COOL AIR.  CHILLY LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.  EXTENDED HAS THIS WELL IN HAND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED.

.DSM...NONE

COGIL

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
320 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD IOWA THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.  LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.  HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT.  THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA.  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY
SEVEN.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0224 AM    3 NE BEDFORD              IA   WIND DAMAGE
10/04/02   TAYLOR                         LAW ENFORCEMENT
                                          OFFICIAL REPORTED TREE
                                          FELL ON A HOUSE.

0227 AM    CLEARFIELD                IA   WIND DAMAGE
10/04/02   TAYLOR                         LAW ENFORCEMENT
                                          OFFICIAL REPORTED POWER
                                          LINES DOWN ALONG WITH
                                          SEVERAL LARGE TREES.