Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2002

COMPLICATED FORECAST TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS THERE ARE A FEW THINGS
GOING ON AT ONCE.  OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE VORT MAX PULLING NE
OUT OF KS/NE TOWARDS IA.  THIS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH
SUBSTANTIALLY LESS CAP...GOOD MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
THE CAVEAT...CLOUD COVER PRODUCED FROM AN EARLIER VORT MAX.  THIS
WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE VORT MAX
MOVES CLOSER...SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING.  NEXT CONCERN IS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN NEB...ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE VORT
MAX.   THESE SHOULD BEHAVE THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE INTO IOWA AND WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL/SVR WX.

THE NEXT PROBLEM IS THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS
ACROSS THE DKTAS AND NEB HEADING INTO IA.  THERE IS NOT MUCH PUSH TO
THE SRN END OF THE FRONT BUT A SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONT ALONG WITH IT.   BY
TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AN ALO
TO DSM TO RDK.  MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RELOAD FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...AFTER
THE MORNINGS CONVECTION...THUS GIVING US ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND
THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THE FRONT THEN STALLS A BIT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR STORMS OVER THE SERN QUARTER OF
THE CWA.  HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING THE FRONT INTO NRN MO BEFORE STALLING IT OUT ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIP SHOULD END OVER THE CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SOME CLEARING WITH COOLER TEMPS.  THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE
FAIRLY TRANQUIL BEFORE AN ACTIVE START TO NEXT WEEK.

THE EXTENDED BECOMES PROBLEMATIC AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN
NEB AND THE DKTAS WITH A WRM FNT EXTENDING...AND VACILLATING
BETWEEN NRN IA AND SRN MN.  CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND N OF
THIS BOUNDARY BUT JUST WHERE IT WILL OCCUR IS THE PROBLEM.  FOR NOW
I HAVE PUT A CHANCE IN STARTING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.DSM...NONE

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1130 PM    RICKETTS                  IA   WIND DAMAGE
06/10/02   CRAWFORD                       UPROOTED TREES.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1132 PM    DENISON                   IA   WIND DAMAGE
06/10/02   CRAWFORD                       LARGE TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.