Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
230 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

THE OBVIOUS FCST PROB IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SVR TSTMS TDA AND THIS
EVE. ALL SVR PARAMS STRONGLY SUPPORT THE HIGH RISK FOR OUR CWA
ISSUED BY SPC. SEE LATEST SWODY1 FOR A THOROUGH DISC. CURRENT ZFP
HAS THE SITUATION PRETTY WELL COVERED...BUT WILL HAVE TO ADD SOME
DEFINITION TO THE TIMING AND ALSO ADD MENTION OF SVR TO ALL GROUPS.
ATMOS INITIALLY CAPPED...SO MAIN ACTION SHOULD NOT COME UNTIL AFT
THE NOON HOUR AS CFNT APPROACHES WRN MN AND SFC HTG...ISENT
LIFT...AND LOLVL MSTR ADVCTN ARE MAXIMIZED. ALL MODELS DID WELL IN
DEPICTING DIFFERENT AREAS OF CURRENT TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT AVN SEEMED
TO DO BEST OVERALL...AND WILL USE A BLEND OF AVN AND ETA FOR GENERAL
TIMING. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AFT 06Z TNGT AS CFNT PASSES AND
DRY/COLD ADVCTN COMMENCES. UPR TROF TAKES MOST OF THU TO PASS...BUT
BY THEN LOWER LEVELS HAVE DRIED OUT AS SFC RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATE. PCLDY SHOULD SUFFICE...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT BREEZY
WORDING WITH 35KT 850MB WNDS AND CAA. MID-UPR 80S FOR TDA IN CURRENT
ZONES STILL LOOK CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WAA REGIME...AND
INITIAL SUNSHINE. COOL-DOWN FOR THU ALSO WELL DEPICTED. TEMPS WILL
NEED LITTLE OR NO UPDATING.

.DLH...NONE.

ERF

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-312000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
500 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...

HAZARD...
LARGE HAIL...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSSURE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

SOME OF THE CITIES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA ARE...
DULUTH...SUPERIOR...HIBBING...VIRGINIA...GRAND RAPIDS...GRAND
MARAIS..AND GRAND PORTAGE IN NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...AND
BAYFIELD..ASHLAND...AND IRONWOOD IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

SOME OF THE CITIES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA ARE
BRAINERD...AITKIN...PINE CITY...AND INTERNATIONAL FALLS IN
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...AND SPOONER...HAYWARD...AND PARK FALLS IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AFTER 200
PM.

.END

STEWART

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-312000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
830 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

...SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...

HAZARD...
LARGE HAIL...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSSURE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OVER ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MILES AN HOUR. SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLDUES CROW WING...AITKIN...PINE...AND
CARLTON COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA AND MOST OF NORTWESTERN WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THE CITIES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDE
BRAINERD...HINCKLEY...AITKIN...GRANTSBURG...HAYWARD...ASHLAND...AND
PARK FALLS. THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.END

CHRISTENSON