Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1055 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

STRONG STORMS FORMING OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  THESE ARE IN
REACTION TO THE COOLING AT MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING VORT MAX.  EXPECT THIS VORT MAX TO PASS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING CONVECTION AGAIN OVER OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS.  THE FORECASTED SBCAPES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  MORE INTENSE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH VALUES
AROUND 3000 J/KG.  WEAKER STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BUT
STRONGER STORMS WILL PROPAGATE MORE EASTERLY AS THEY TAP INTO MORE
JUICY AIR.

IN THE UPDATED FORECAST RELEASED AROUND 1020 AM...KEPT LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPECT FOR THIS VORT MAX PASSAGE.  ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN COOLED AIR KEEPING TEMPS DOWN.

.DLH...NONE.
KFM

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-272000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
854 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

HAZARD...
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RE-IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.  MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.  TORNADOES OR LARGE HAIL
ARE ALSO REMOTE POSSIBILITIES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

.END

KFM