Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
200 AM CDT THU AUG 01 2002

CURRENTLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SFC FRONT
ARE THE INGREDIENTS CURRENTLY.  STORMS ARE SHOWING ELEVATED
CHARACTERISTICS AT THE MOMENT.  HEAVY RAINS (FLOODING) AND HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE SEVERE THREAT.  SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES LCL
HEIGHTS OF 800 M AND LOWERING WITH TIME SO SEVERE WINDS ARE STILL A
POSSIBLE THREAT.

WITH MORE TSRA FIRING OVER EASTERN ND... DOES NOT APPEAR CONVECTION
WILL EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL 18Z.  WILL
MAINTAIN PRECIP MENTION UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.  WILL
LOOK AT RADAR, SATELLITE, ETC., JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE TO DEFINE THE
AREA.

DOES CLEAR OUT FAIRLY WELL AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  SOME SC IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BE THIN. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PRODUCE MIXING PREVENTING TONIGHT FROM BEING TOO CHILLY.

FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH CU FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE A
RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH WINDS CALMING (HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON).  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE CHILLY NIGHT, WEAK
RETURN FLOW WILL START BUT MAINLY ALOFT.  GOOD RADIATION COOLING
WITH CALM SFC WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.DLH...SVR WATCH 561 FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ALONG WITH
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN WISCONSIN THROUGH 09Z.

KFM