Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL NOT BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, RATHER
THE AMOUNT OF THE CWA THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE ACTIVITY.

EARLY THIS AM, A NARROW BAND OF STORMS WAS FORMING EAST OF GLD AND
NORTH OF I-70.  MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA WAS INCREASING AS
THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WAS KICKING INTO HIGH GEAR.  THINK THIS
GENERAL AREA WILL BE HIGHLIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS
MORNING AND PART OF THE NORTHEAST CWA COULD ALSO GET CLIPPED.

LATER ON TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RECOVERING ENOUGH TO GET
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS GOING, ESPECIALLY LATE.  THE LATEST H20
VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW THE TROPICAL PLUME TO BE DEEPENING AND
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH.  MODELS HINT AT A MINOR S/WV TROF IN THIS
FLOW.  WITH HEATING AND COVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE (WHICH HAS
MOVED FARTHER WEST THAN HAD BEEN ADVERTIZED BY EARLIER MODELS), AND
THE APPROCH OF ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT ALL WILL GET RAIN).  THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THERE, ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  YET ANOTHER ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT ROUND WOULD LIKELY BE FURTHER SOUTH.

DAYS 3-7...

ONLY CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE TO ADD SOME CLOUDS TO GOING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINING IN
PLACE. IF UPPER LOW IS AS FAST AS CURRENT MODELS ADVERTISE, LATER
SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CUT OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT
AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE TRIES TO
MAKES ITS WAY BACK NORTH AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE PER AVN AND UKMET
RUNS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   89  62  79  60 /  20  50  30  30
GCK   90  60  78  59 /  30  50  30  30
EHA   95  61  83  60 /  20  50  30  30
LBL   94  61  82  62 /  20  50  30  30
HYS   85  60  76  56 /  20  70  30  30
P28   93  69  81  63 /  10  50  30  30

.DDC...NONE.

07/21

KSZ045-064-078-088-120300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
911 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 410 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FORD, HODGEMAN,
NESS AND CLARK COUNTIES...

THE TORNADO WATCH FOR NESS COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM.

&&

15

KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090-120300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
914 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 410 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 414...

THIS AFFECTS ELLIS, RUSH, PAWNEE, STAFFORD, EDWARDS, KIOWA, PRATT,
COMANCHE AND BARBER COUNTIES.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES IS NOT AS LIKELY.  HOWEVER, YOU SHOULD
ALWAYS REMAIN ALERT TO THE SITUATION.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

15