Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL NOT BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, RATHER
THE AMOUNT OF THE CWA THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE ACTIVITY.

EARLY THIS AM, A NARROW BAND OF STORMS WAS FORMING EAST OF GLD AND
NORTH OF I-70.  MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA WAS INCREASING AS
THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WAS KICKING INTO HIGH GEAR.  THINK THIS
GENERAL AREA WILL BE HIGHLIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS
MORNING AND PART OF THE NORTHEAST CWA COULD ALSO GET CLIPPED.

LATER ON TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RECOVERING ENOUGH TO GET
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS GOING, ESPECIALLY LATE.  THE LATEST H20
VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW THE TROPICAL PLUME TO BE DEEPENING AND
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH.  MODELS HINT AT A MINOR S/WV TROF IN THIS
FLOW.  WITH HEATING AND COVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE (WHICH HAS
MOVED FARTHER WEST THAN HAD BEEN ADVERTIZED BY EARLIER MODELS), AND
THE APPROCH OF ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOT ALL WILL GET RAIN).  THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THERE, ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  YET ANOTHER ROUND WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT ROUND WOULD LIKELY BE FURTHER SOUTH.

DAYS 3-7...

ONLY CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE TO ADD SOME CLOUDS TO GOING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINING IN
PLACE. IF UPPER LOW IS AS FAST AS CURRENT MODELS ADVERTISE, LATER
SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CUT OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT
AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE TRIES TO
MAKES ITS WAY BACK NORTH AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE PER AVN AND UKMET
RUNS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   89  62  79  60 /  20  50  30  30
GCK   90  60  78  59 /  30  50  30  30
EHA   95  61  83  60 /  20  50  30  30
LBL   94  61  82  62 /  20  50  30  30
HYS   85  60  76  56 /  20  70  30  30
P28   93  69  81  63 /  10  50  30  30

.DDC...NONE.

07/21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    15N SUBLETTE              KS   1.00 IN HAIL
06/10/02   HASKELL                        SPOTTER REPORT.

0450 PM    4SSE PLYMELL              KS   0.75 IN HAIL
06/10/02   FINNEY                         PUBLIC REPORT.

0455 PM    8N COPELAND               KS   1.00 IN HAIL
06/10/02   GRAY                           PUBLIC REPORT.

0500 PM    3SSW RANSOM               KS   70 MPH TSTM GUST
06/10/02   NESS                           PUBLIC REPORT.

0505 PM    10NNE SUBLETTE            KS   70 MPH TSTM GUST
06/10/02   HASKELL                        REPORTED BY HASKELL
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE.

0559 PM    6WNW MONTEZUMA            KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/10/02   GRAY                           SPOTTER REPORT.

0640 PM    7SE CIMARRON              KS   0.75 IN HAIL
06/10/02   GRAY                           SPOTTER REPORT.

0740 PM    13W BLOOM                 KS   1.75 IN HAIL
06/10/02   FORD                           ALSO HAD 70-80 MPH WIND
                                          GUSTS. PUBLIC REPORT.

0800 PM    1NE HAVILAND              KS   0.88 IN HAIL
06/10/02   KIOWA                          ALSO HAD 60 MPH WIND
                                          GUSTS. PUBLIC REPORT.

0840 PM    2SE CULLISON              KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
06/10/02   PRATT                          PUBLIC REPORT.

GERARD