Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
322 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2002

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE FLUSHED OUT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WEST OF THE RANGES...BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE BEEN LINGERING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OUT OF
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNSET.  OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT.  MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH A FEW MORE LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.  TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF 80S AND 90S. A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME.
HOWEVER...THE RESPITE FROM HIGH TEMPS AND LOW RH LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED.

.EXTENDED...
THE TREND IS STILL TOWARD HOT AND CONTINUED DRY FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER
ALASKA. THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED AND IS IN ALL LONG RANGE
MODELS. ASIDE FROM SOME PM THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
WYOMING IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...HOT AND DRY SHOULD BE THE
MESSAGE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

RGB/WTP

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-221900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1050 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE
AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES OVER.  THIS WILL ACT TO LIMIT BOTH THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EVENING.  THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF BUT STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

RE
WCJIN-WYSE-WYNE

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-211900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1058 AM MDT FRI JUN 21 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN WYOMING...WHERE THAT
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT.  OTHER
STORMS THAT FOR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS BUT WILL NOT BE SEVERE.

SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED THAN THOSE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
THEY WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
ADDITION TO DRY LIGHTNING.

&&

BANN