Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 3 2002

...ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF HOT WX...THEN RELIEF ON THE WAY...

COUPLE OF STORMS POPPING IN SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH VILS GENERALLY
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S. CELLS SINKING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH...AND
LIKELY PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THEREAFTER...EXPECT JUST SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE FAR NW AS TEMPS FALL TO DEWPTS. ALSO...WL
GO A TAD BLO NGM MOS FOR FAR NW AS WELL WHERE LOWER DEWPTS HAVE
PUSHED IN.

FOR SUNDAY...SHOULD BE ANOTHER TOASTY ONE...EVEN IN FAR NW MOUNTAINS
AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR PUSHES IN FROM W. THIS PUSH IS IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES/E CANADA. WARM MID LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY...AND WL NOT INCLUDE POPS.
TEMP/DEWPT COMBO DOES APPROACH HEAT ADV CRITERIA FOR SUN AFTN OVER
FAR SE...BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED. FOR NOW WL NOT ISSUE ADV BUT WL
MENTION HIGH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 103 DEGREES IN SE ZONES.
SHOULD DEWPTS BE A SMIDGE HIGHER THAN PROGGED...THEN HEAT ADV MAY BE
WARRANTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM W ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND INTO UPSTATE NY STATE. ETA PUSHES
FRONT SOUTH IN ITS WAKE...WHILE AVN KEEPS FRONT FURTHER N IN
RESPONSE TO SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM W. NCEP PMDHMD
DISCUSSION INDICATES AVN MAY BE A TAD OVERDONE WITH SECOND
FEATURE...AND THAT ETA HAS BETTER HANDLE ON SFC FRONTAL MOVEMENT. AS
SUCH...WL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR NW FOR SUN NIGHT...AND SLGHT CHC FOR
CENTRAL AREAS. MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD GRAZE NORTHERN
AREAS...BUT TAIL END OF ACTIVITY COULD GET FURTHER S.

FOR MON...FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVANCE SE. ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH SOUTHWARD PUSH...BUT APPEARS TO BE MERGING FRONT WITH LEE
TROUGH/LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER MCS TO OUR N. WL GO
WITH GOOD CHC POPS FOR MOST ZONES...ARRIVING IN THE FAR SE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT...FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP S...SO SOME LINGERING EVENING
ACTIVITY POSS IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

AFTER THIS...RELIEF FINALLY UNDERWAY AS TROUGH DIGS OFF NEW ENG
COAST...DRIVING STG SFC HIGH SE INTO GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES.
WL SEEM CHILLY IN COMPARISON OVER FAR NW ZONES...EXPECT TO SEE 40S
IN THESE AREAS...AND NOT NECESSARILY ON THE HIGH RANGE OF THIS. FAIR
WX ACCOMPANYING SFC HIGH WELL INTO UPCOMING WEEK.

.CTP...NONE.

KL