Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM TUE JUL 2 2002

...HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WED EVENING FOR LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...

DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH IN THE FAR SE WITH LITTLE GRADIENT
AND LIGHT WINDS UNABLE TO MIX OUT THE VERY HI LOW LEVEL RH. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN SOME POCKETS OF 75 TO 80 DEWPOINT READINGS...ESP IN
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. RESULTANT HEAT INDICES WERE 105 TO 108. ALSO
HAVE A FEW ISOL TSTMS POPPING UP...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SW AND NE.

WL KEEP 20 POP THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT FOR WANING CONVECTION.
THEREAFTER...JUST HAZY AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG...AND ALSO HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE
FAR SE REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 DEGREES...THUS THE
CONTINUATION OF HEAT ADVISORY.

FOR WED...ANOTHER SIZZLER...MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HOTTER...ESP
IN FAR SE AS WE APPEAR TO GET A BIT MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING W TO NW
WIND COMPONENT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER ACROSS THE AREA TOM
AFTERNOON BASED ON UPSTREAM AFTERNOON OBS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS FOR CONVECTION...MID LEVEL CAP IS ACTUALLY A BIT
STRONGER TOM AFTN THEN TODAY. ALSO DO NOT HAVE WK VORT CROSSING
AREA. NEVERTHELESS...WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONV...AND
EXTREME CAPES...DO FEEL THAT A 20 POP SHOULD BE INCLUDED. WITH CAPES
NEARING OR EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG...ANY STORMS CAN QUICKLY GO SVR WITH
HAIL AND/OR STRONG ISOL WIND GUSTS.

WED NIGHT...ANY ISOL EVENING TSTMS SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THEN JUST PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY HELP
PRECLUDE FOG PATCHES FROM DEVELOPING AS MUCH AS RECENT AMS.

THEN FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
1000-850 HPA THETA E FIELDS RATHER TIGHT...AND AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOL AFTN STORM POP. THAT
BEING SAID...WE HAVE VERY LITTLE DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH ALOFT. AREA
IN UNFAVORABLE RF QUAD OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENG.
THIS APPEARS TO AID IN GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
SO...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THE FOURTH. WL ALSO BECOME LESS
HUMID AS DAY WEARS ON.

FOR XTND...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND ON TAP WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALEUS AND COOLER TEMPS. SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
DIM SUNSHINE LATE SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
ANOTHER WARM UP FOR MON-TUE...BUT NOT NEARLY AS SIG AS CURRENT
SPELL. THEREAFTER...BIG RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES FURTHER
W...ALLOWING TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE STATES.

.CTP...HEAT ADV THROUGH WED EVENING FOR LWR SUSQ VLY.

KL