Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2002

COLD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN QUICKLY COMING INTO PLAY THIS AM AND
WILL HOLD THROUGH THANKSGIVING. COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY ABOUT 30 NM OFF THE COAST WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
RIDING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL LAYER OVER SOUTH TEXAS. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONG TODAY ENHANCED BY A MID LVL S/W APCHG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. STEEP LAPSE
RATES...INCREASING DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND PROXIMITY TO H85 FRONT WILL
YIELD SOME ELEVATED TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GET A
NEEDED PUSH TONIGHT AS WHEN THE MID WEST LOW MOVES EAST CAUSING 1035
MB SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
PLUNGING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER 40S
COAST BY WED AM. ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS IN THE MID LVLS (H7)
THROUGH MIDDAY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. MESO-ETA/ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS
REVEAL SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES IN THE H95-H85 MB LAYER NORTH OF A LINE
FROM ZAPATA TO THREE RIVERS WED MORNING WHICH IF PRECIP OCCURS COULD
PRODUCE SOME MIXED -RA/IP. AVN DOES NOT SHOW THIS COLD OF AN AIRMASS.
TOTAL RAIN FOR THIS WEEK LONG EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

LONG TERM...THE RETROGRATING UPR LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL FINALLY GET PICKED UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
DEVELOPS ON THE EAST COAST. THIS PLACES SOUTH TEXAS IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE WITH SUBTROPICAL JET OVHD THRU THE PERIOD. EXPECT
THE COLD SFC AMS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
REDEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN ZONES THURS AND ALL AREAS FRI. LOW AND
MID LVLS FINALLY DRY OUT SAT-SUN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PREV
MENTIONED EAST COAST TROF.

MARINE...LOW END SCA SHOULD BE ONGOING OFFSHORE TODAY...AND EXPECT
BAYS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA BY 21Z AS RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER WIND SPEED
VALUES INDICATED BY THE GFS.  WILL NOT FORECAST GALE CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THIS PACKAGE AND LET NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM...AND WILL LOWER TO JUST CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SCA FOR THE BAYS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT
WINDS OFFSHORE TO DIMINISH MORE GRADUALLY THAN MODELS INDICATE DUE
TO WARM OCEAN WATERS...AS SCA SHOULD END BY FRIDAY.

CRP TR 053/042 048/040 048 88667
VCT TR 050/038 045/038 048 88556
LRD RR 053/041 044/039 044 66435

.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.

JM75/TR92

TXZ229>234-239>247-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  OTHERWISE...ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
ON INTO THE REGION BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.  WINDS WILL BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED
FOR THE MARINE AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD...HOWEVER NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED.  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

TR