Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
210 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

A RATHER ACTIVE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH TX.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE AN UPR LVL LOW MOVING FROM THE SW
GULF INTO DEEP SOUTH TX AND NERN MEXICO ON MON NIGHT.  THIS FEATURE
WL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CWFA ON TUE AND EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED IN
A DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM EAST TX INTO THE BAJA RGN.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW AS EVIDENCED
BY THE CONTINUING BLOWUP OF CONVECTION IN THE NW GULF AND ACROSS
SOUTH TX.  THE MORNING CRP SOUNDING WAS AROUND 2.4 INCHES.  THE
MODELS HAVE NOT REALLY HANDLED THE MOISTURE FIELDS VERY WELL AND DO
NOT BUY THEIR SOLN OF TEMPORARILY LOWERING PWS BELOW 2 INCHES FOR
MON.  BLV WE WL SEE MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP ELY FLOW CONTINUES AND
EXCELLENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TRANSLATES FROM THE GULF ONTO LAND.
WL GO WITH CHC POPS EAST...SLIGHT CHC WEST FOR TNT AND MON.  WL
BEGIN TO RAISE POPS ON MON NIGHT AS THE UPR LOW MOVES ON LAND.

CURRENT WV/IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS PWS NEAR 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE ERN
GULF AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN...TO THE EAST OF THE UPR LOW.  THIS
MOISTURE WL AFFECT THE CWFA TUE AND WED.  THUS...WL GO ABV GUIDANCE
POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT GO HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SITUATIONS LIKE THIS.

EXTENDED...WL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS THROUGH FRI AS THE SAME GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.  THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA BY THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS DUE
TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.  THUS...WL LOWER
POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...TYPICAL SEPTEMBER PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE TROPICS BEGINNING TO HEAT UP. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS WEEK MAINTAINING LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THRU THE PERIOD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF...EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THE MOISTURE IS ASSOC WITH A COUPLE STRONG TROPICAL WAVES
WHICH ARE PROGGED TO MOVE WEST INTO THE WRN GULF THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. EXPECT PRECIP COVERGE IN SCT/NUM CATEGORY BEGINNING MON AND
PERSISTING THRU THURS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE BY FRIDAY AS DRIER NELY
FLOW DEVELOPS.

PRELIMS...
CRP ET 076/091 077/087 077 44575
VCT BT 074/093 076/090 076 33364
LRD BT 077/093 077/091 077 22354
NGP ET 078/089 078/087 078 44575

MB...80
JM...75

.CRP...NONE.

TXZ229>234-239>247-021200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
333 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

...THE FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER WILL BE WET ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AND THEN
PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BOTH AHEAD OF AND
ALSO BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA.  A GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.  ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL TO OCCUR WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME OF THE
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE VERY HEAVY AT TIMES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS THIS WEEK.

SOUTH TEXAS RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A SOGGY WEEK.  IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTH.  IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI.

MB