Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
200 PM CST SAT MAR 30 2002

SHORT-TERM...TWO THINGS TO FOCUS ON THIS AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THEN THE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES.   LATEST 88D IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER PORTIONS OF REFUGIO COUNTY.  THESE STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE AND THE SEABREEZE FRONT.  WILL KEEP LOW
END CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS SURFACE  LOW PRESSURE IN EAST CENTRAL
TEXAS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST.  THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE
COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL START IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY
EARLY TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT BEFORE THE SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.  WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...PLACES IN THE NORTH(ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURS) AND EAST MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE.  AS FOR
TEMPS... OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WERE COMMON LAST NIGHT.  LOWS
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THE NEXT TWO NIGHT.  READINGS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.  THE CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  AS A RESULT...BRIEF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET
UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND GIVE WAY TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO BRING A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS TIME WILL
ONLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS.  BY THURSDAY...WEAK LIFT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN.  THE MRF HINTS AT THE
FORMATION OF A COASTAL TROUGH DURING THIS TIME WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...GALE WARNING WILL BE LOWERED TO SCA FOR EARLY TONIGHT.
AFTER EARLY TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERION...BUT SCA
WILL AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY. DRYLINE CURRENTLY FROM NORTHEAST
LIVE OAK-SOUTHWEST DUVAL LINE IN CWA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TWD COAST BY
THIS EVENING AT WHICH POINT IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
ONSHORE. OVERNIGHT THE TRUE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS, SWITCHING THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST...TO NORTH TO
NORTHWEST...AND INCREASING THE OFFSHORE FLOW TO SCA LEVELS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP BB 060/083 056/080 061 -0000
VCT BB 057/080 050/076 058 10000
LRD BB 063/087 058/084 062 00000

.CRP...SCA EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY ALL MARINE ZONES.

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SOUTH TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 AM CST SAT MAR 30 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
THE CROSSROADS REGION AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A SKIDMORE TO ROCKPORT LINE.  THIS
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF VICTORIA...BEEVILLE...GOLIAD...AND REFUGIO.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND SOME
HAIL.

THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING...AN APPROACHING DRY LINE...AND
A PASSING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  PERSONS IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
REGION AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

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